A. M. Ali, Bader A Al-Ablani, Marwa Mekky, Noura A. . AL-GHIMLAS, M. M. Alam
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Risk assessment is an important factor in project cost management. This study addresses the risks associated with a 900 meter long bridge construction project. The risk of a bridge construction project is assessed to limit and quantify the impact on the project. The impact of various risks was investigated to express the impact on the total project contract value at the estimation stage. A project risk analysis is introduced to assess the percentage of risk attributed to the total cost. After assessing the impact of risks on cost using Expected Monetary Value (EMV), a new approach of including uncertainties on risk analyses, using description (C, Q, K), is discussed and its advantages and shortcomings are highlighted. Risk is then assessed at several stages of project execution during the budgeting phase, and risk-based project value (RPV) is used to assess the value of the project at each stage. RPV usually increases as the project progresses towards its goals. Due to this property, the RPV of the entire project can be categorized into the contribution value (CV) of each activity. The CV of an activity is defined as the increase in RPV after each activity completes successfully. The results highlight the positive impact of successfully completing the activities associated with the highest risk. In addition, practical solutions for risk assessment and analysis of bridge construction projects are provided for use by bridge construction contractors, project managers and project management engineers.
风险评估是工程造价管理的重要内容。本研究针对一座900米长的桥梁建设项目的风险进行了分析。评估桥梁建设项目的风险是为了限制和量化对项目的影响。考察各种风险的影响,表达在估算阶段对工程总合同价值的影响。引入项目风险分析来评估总成本中风险的百分比。在使用预期货币价值(EMV)评估风险对成本的影响之后,讨论了一种将不确定性纳入风险分析的新方法,即使用描述(C, Q, K),并突出了其优点和缺点。然后在预算阶段的项目执行的几个阶段评估风险,并使用基于风险的项目价值(RPV)来评估每个阶段的项目价值。RPV通常随着项目向目标推进而增加。由于这个特性,整个项目的RPV可以被分类为每个活动的贡献值(CV)。一个活动的CV定义为每个活动成功完成后RPV的增加。结果突出了成功完成与最高风险相关的活动的积极影响。此外,还为桥梁建设项目的风险评估和分析提供了实用的解决方案,供桥梁建设承包商、项目经理和项目管理工程师使用。
期刊介绍:
Journal of Industrial Engineering International is an international journal dedicated to the latest advancement of industrial engineering. The goal of this journal is to provide a platform for engineers and academicians all over the world to promote, share, and discuss various new issues and developments in different areas of industrial engineering. All manuscripts must be prepared in English and are subject to a rigorous and fair peer-review process. Accepted articles will immediately appear online. The journal publishes original research articles, review articles, technical notes, case studies and letters to the Editor, including but not limited to the following fields: Operations Research and Decision-Making Models, Production Planning and Inventory Control, Supply Chain Management, Quality Engineering, Applications of Fuzzy Theory in Industrial Engineering, Applications of Stochastic Models in Industrial Engineering, Applications of Metaheuristic Methods in Industrial Engineering.