Is NPA and Stock Return Related: An Empirical Study of Back Testing Model

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between NPA announcements by banks and the impulsive movement in stock price brought out by these announcements. Primary focus of this study is to determine whether we can create a swing trading model based on back testing the data for the banking stocks listed on the Indian bourses.To achieve this objective we created a databasespanning ten years (2006 to 2016) and collected the daily share prices of eight banks listed on Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The relationship between share price and changes in NPA is studied on the basis of correlation studies and panel-data analysis. Although correlation studies does not establish any significant relationship, but the result of panel-data analysis clearly shows a negative relationship between the two. The result is further utilized to develop swing trading model and get benefit out of it. The novelty of the present study is that it clearly guides the swing traders as to how to earn benefit because of fluctuations in share price due to announce of NPA result.