Seed Selection Strategies for Information Diffusion in Social Networks: An Agent-Based Model Applied to Rural Zambia

Abstract

The successful adoptionof innovationsdependson theprovisionof adequate information to farmers. In rural areas of developing countries, farmers usually rely on their social networks as an information source. Hence, policy-makers and program-implementers can benefit from social di usion processes to e ectively disseminate information. This study aims to identify the set of farmers who initially obtain information (‘seeds’) that optimises di usion through the network. It systematically evaluates di erent criteria for seed selection, number of seeds, and their interaction e ects. An empirical Agent-Based Model adjusted to a case study in rural Zambia was applied to predict di usion outcomes for varying seed sets ex ante. Simulations revealed that informing farmers with the most connections leads to highest di usion speed and reach. Also targeting village heads and farmers with high betweenness centrality, who function as bridges connecting di erent parts of the network, enhances di usion. An increased number of seeds improves reach, but the marginal e ects of additional seeds decline. Interdependencies between seed set size and selection criteria highlight the importance of considering both seed selection criteria and seed set size for optimising seeding strategies to enhance information di usion.