Functional Components and Integrated Circuits: Invention Today Synthesis in 2012 A.D.

J. A. Morton
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

In 1962, a group of fellows of the Institute of Radio Engineers (one of the ancestor organizations of the IEEE) was invited to undertake the hazardous task of transporting themselves forward in thought some 50 years and then presenting the accomplishments of communications, electronics, and computer science, as well as other scientific topics, during the thus scanned era of 1962–2012. Within reason, no physical or engineering limits were placed on their vision or imagination. The narratives or prophecies resulting from this enterprise are being presented each month over the next several years as both a retrospective of the twentieth century and a preview of the next century. Each predictive paper reprint from 1962 will be accompanied by a companion predictive paper that discusses not only the 1962 paper’s contents but also its underlying premises. The companion predictive paper will hopefully provide some insight into the evolution of the subject during the latter part of the twentieth century and what factors might play a role in the evolution of the subject in the future. The following is a brief quote from one paper from the 1962 predictive paper series, “The Potential of Progress-An Optimistic View” by C. G. Suits:
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功能元件和集成电路:今天的发明,公元2012年的合成
1962年,无线电工程师协会(IEEE的前身之一)的一群研究员应邀承担了一项危险的任务,他们将自己的思想向前推进了大约50年,然后展示了通信、电子、计算机科学以及其他科学主题在1962年至2012年的扫描时代取得的成就。在合理的范围内,他们的视野和想象力没有受到物理或工程上的限制。在接下来的几年里,这项事业产生的叙述或预言将作为对二十世纪的回顾和对下一个世纪的展望,每月发表一次。从1962年开始的每一篇预测论文都将伴随着一篇预测论文,不仅讨论1962年论文的内容,而且还讨论其基本前提。伴随的预测论文将有望提供一些深入了解该学科在20世纪后半叶的演变,以及哪些因素可能在该学科未来的演变中发挥作用。以下是1962年预测论文系列《进步的潜力——一种乐观观点》中的一篇论文的简短摘录:
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