In Sickness and in Wealth: The Impact of Leaders' Health on Markets

Manuel R Manuel, Pablo Hernández-Lagos, T. Reyes
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Abstract

We study the effect of head of states' health on markets. We collect data on unexpected exits from office to determine whether these exits affect stock market returns across countries between 1923 and 2015. Health problems precede almost all unexpected exits. Unexpected exits lead to about 1% abnormal return, due mainly to extreme positive jumps following exits of autocrats and non-college leaders. To identify citizens' awareness of a leader's health problems, we collect data on rumors about health issues emerging prior to the leader's exit. The start of rumors generates about 1% negative abnormal returns. The health of leaders matters.
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《疾病与财富:领导者健康对市场的影响
我们研究国家元首的健康状况对市场的影响。我们收集了1923年至2015年间意外离职的数据,以确定这些离职是否会影响各国的股市回报。几乎所有意外退出之前都会出现健康问题。意外退出导致的异常回报约为1%,这主要是由于独裁者和非大学领导退出后的极端正跳跃。为了确定公民对领导人健康问题的意识,我们收集了有关领导人离职前出现健康问题的谣言的数据。谣言开始产生约1%的负异常收益。领导者的健康很重要。
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