Spheres of Influence: Seal Them or Peel Them?

Abstract

„s the 1984 presidential election comes into focus, and the memory of the Korean airliner recedes, the Reagan administration will probably make one more attempt to reach an arms control agreement with the Soviet Union. From a political perspective, the administration is well positioned. If Reagan can demonstrate his flexibility, the Soviets will either have to make a deal, which will deprive the Democrats of the nuclear issue, or they will bluster and refuse to cooperate, thus helping Reagan to prove his point about Soviet disingenuousness on arms control. Because of the Korean airliner tragedy, too, the Soviets have an additional incentive to be cooperative and regain some of the credibility they lost in Europe. If the Soviets decide to cooperate, the United States may find an astute Yuri Andropov prepared to cut a larger deal. If the United States stops supporting Afghani insurgents and stops encouraging the Poles and other Eastern Europeans, the Soviets will call off their wolves in Central America.