The Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Venezuela: the Urgency of External Financing

D. Barraez, Ana María Chirinos-Leañez
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Abstract

We briefly describe the macroeconomic performance before the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), which is mainly characterized by severe economic depression, economic and financial sanctions by the Trump administration, and tight fiscal space that constrains to undertake additional measures. We estimate three economic scenarios based on different oil price assumptions for 2020. The negative effects of the quarantine on the economy are estimated using the two biggest shocks faced by Venezuela in its recent history. We emphasize the relevance of foreign currency and external financing to mitigate the pandemic’s impact. Finally, we discuss the economic measures taken by the government.
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2019冠状病毒病对委内瑞拉的经济影响:外部融资的紧迫性
我们简要描述了新冠肺炎疫情蔓延前的宏观经济表现,主要表现为经济严重萧条、特朗普政府实施经济和金融制裁、财政空间紧张制约了采取进一步措施。我们根据2020年不同的油价假设,估计了三种经济情景。隔离对经济的负面影响是用委内瑞拉近代史上面临的两大冲击来估计的。我们强调外币和外部融资对减轻疫情影响的重要性。最后,我们讨论了政府采取的经济措施。
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