Major Project Risk Management: Reconciling Complexity during Delivery with the Inside View in Planning

Paul Chapman, Cuong Cuang
{"title":"Major Project Risk Management: Reconciling Complexity during Delivery with the Inside View in Planning","authors":"Paul Chapman, Cuong Cuang","doi":"10.25219/EPOJ.2021.00104","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Recent research on the origins of risk during the planning and delivery of major projects broadly addresses two root causes: (i) complexity at the planning phase and also during project delivery, and; (ii) ‘the inside view’ at the planning phase and the associated issues of strategic misrepresentation and cognitive biases such as optimism bias. This paper presents the results of a systematic review that finds a schism in the literature showing theoretical and empirical treatment of project delivery risk polarises into considering either the effect of complexity or the inside view; rarely are they considered jointly. This work discusses the implications for theory and practice and identifies Case Based Decision Theory and Bayesian modelling, both of which are outside view techniques, as having potential to reconcile complexity and the inside view and thus provide for their joint treatment.","PeriodicalId":12443,"journal":{"name":"Francosphères: Volume 10, Issue 2","volume":"271 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Francosphères: Volume 10, Issue 2","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.25219/EPOJ.2021.00104","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2

Abstract

Recent research on the origins of risk during the planning and delivery of major projects broadly addresses two root causes: (i) complexity at the planning phase and also during project delivery, and; (ii) ‘the inside view’ at the planning phase and the associated issues of strategic misrepresentation and cognitive biases such as optimism bias. This paper presents the results of a systematic review that finds a schism in the literature showing theoretical and empirical treatment of project delivery risk polarises into considering either the effect of complexity or the inside view; rarely are they considered jointly. This work discusses the implications for theory and practice and identifies Case Based Decision Theory and Bayesian modelling, both of which are outside view techniques, as having potential to reconcile complexity and the inside view and thus provide for their joint treatment.
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
重大项目风险管理:协调交付过程中的复杂性与计划中的内部视图
最近关于重大项目规划和交付过程中风险起源的研究主要涉及两个根本原因:(i)规划阶段和项目交付过程中的复杂性;(ii)计划阶段的“内部观点”以及与之相关的战略错误陈述和认知偏见(如乐观偏见)问题。本文提出了一项系统综述的结果,该综述发现在文献中存在分裂,表明项目交付风险的理论和实证处理分为考虑复杂性的影响或考虑内部观点;它们很少被联合考虑。这项工作讨论了理论和实践的含义,并确定了基于案例的决策理论和贝叶斯建模,这两者都是外部视图技术,具有调和复杂性和内部视图的潜力,从而提供了它们的联合治疗。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊最新文献
Color and Architecture: Walter Gropius and the Bauhaus Wall-Painting Workshop in Collaboration, 1922-1926 Experiments with Megastuctures and Building Systems. University Building in the Federal Republic of Germany in the 1960s and 1970s From IB74 to US Patent 4438616: The (re)making of a profession The constraints of translating martial arts fiction Translating and publishing French theatre in China
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1