Examining the utility of existing chemical hazard paradigms to predict future global-scale environmental impacts from emerging chemicals

Abstract

Environmental context In previous instances of global impacts from chemicals, there were significant gaps between the onset of use and observations that triggered management. The lessons of the past have informed the development of strong paradigms for chemical management, but at some point, major impacts will again emerge, not covered by these paradigms. Holistic observation of the environment and collaborative reporting are needed to identify signals of future major issues. Abstract Increasing concern over per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the environment, in the last decade, has sparked an interest in emerging chemicals more broadly, leading to the development or strengthening of many useful programs for understanding and prioritising environmental hazards and risks for chemicals. While important and useful, such efforts mostly rely on comparing chemical properties with paradigms generated from previous environmental issues. The lessons of the past demonstrate that, at some point, major challenges to our existing paradigms will eventuate. Key to addressing these challenges is our ability for early identification of ‘blind spots’ not covered by our existing paradigms. Furthermore, if we only look for gross observable changes in the environment, we will only ever be able to respond with reactive measures. We suggest that while various relevant monitoring programs are in place and have been proposed, encouraging those processes to look beyond existing hazard paradigms and look for more subtle environmental signals will improve the ability to respond proactively when harm is still limited.