Hazard analysis on public-private partnership projects in developing Asia

Minsoo Lee, Xuehui Han, Pilipinas F. Quising, Mai Lin Villaruel
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Developing Asia’s infrastructure gap results from both inadequate public resources and a lack of effective channels to mobilize private resources toward desired outcomes. The public-private partnership (PPP) mechanism has evolved to fill the infrastructure gap. However, PPP projects are often at risk of becoming distressed, or worst, being terminated because of the long-term nature of contracts and the many different stakeholders involved. This paper applies survival-time hazard analysis to estimate how project-related, macroeconomic, and institutional factors affect the hazard rate of the projects. Empirical results show that government’s provision of guarantees, involvement of multilateral development banks, and existence of a dedicated PPP unit are important for a project’s success. Privately initiated proposals should be regulated and undergo competitive bidding to reduce the hazard rate of the project and the corresponding burden to the government. Economic growth leads to successful project outcomes. Improved legal and institutional environment can ensure PPP success.
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亚洲发展中国家公私合作项目的危害分析
亚洲发展中国家在基础设施建设方面存在差距,一方面是因为公共资源不足,另一方面是因为缺乏调动私人资源的有效渠道。政府和社会资本合作(PPP)机制的发展填补了基础设施缺口。然而,由于合同的长期性和涉及的利益相关者众多,PPP项目经常面临陷入困境,甚至最糟糕的是被终止的风险。本文运用生存时间风险分析来估计项目相关因素、宏观经济因素和制度因素如何影响项目的风险率。实证结果表明,政府提供担保、多边开发银行的参与以及PPP部门的存在对项目的成功至关重要。对民间提出的项目进行规范和招标,以降低项目的风险率和相应的政府负担。经济增长带来成功的项目成果。完善的法律和制度环境可以确保PPP的成功。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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CiteScore
1.00
自引率
14.30%
发文量
13
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