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Forecasting China-Africa economic integration using Wavelet-ARIMA hybrid approach 基于小波- arima混合方法预测中非经济一体化
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2647
Marvellous Ngundu, Reon Matemane
China-Africa economic integration generally looks lucid, as evidenced by rising bilateral trade, as well as Chinese FDI, aid, and debt financing for infrastructure development in Africa. The engagement, however, appears to be strategically channeled to benefit China’s resource endowment strategy. First, Chinese FDI in Africa is primarily resource-seeking, with minimum manufacturing value addition. Second, China has successfully replicated the Angola model in other resource-rich African countries, and most infrastructure loans-for-natural resources barter deals are said to be undervalued. There is also a resource-backed loan arrangement in place, in which default Chinese loans are repaid in natural resources. Third, while China claims that its financial aid is critical to Africa’s growth and development processes, a significant portion of the aid is spent on non-development projects such as building parliaments and government buildings. This lend credence to the notion that China uses aid to gain diplomatic recognition from African leaders, with resource-rich and/or institutionally unstable countries being the most targeted. The preceding arguments support why Africa’s exports to China dominate other China’s financial flows to Africa, and consist mainly of natural resources. Accordingly, this study aims to forecast China-Africa economic integration through the lens of China’s demand for natural resources and Africa’s demand for capital, both of which are reflected in Africa’s exports to China. The study used a MODWT-ARIMA hybrid forecasting technique to account for the short period of available China-Africa bilateral trade dataset (1992–2021), and found that Africa’s exports to China are likely to decline from US$ 119.20 billion in 2022 to US$ 13.68 billion in 2026 on average. This finding coincides with a period in which Chinese demand for Africa’s natural resources is expected to decline.
中非经济一体化总体上看起来是清晰的,双边贸易的增长,以及中国对非洲基础设施发展的直接投资、援助和债务融资都证明了这一点。然而,这种接触似乎是战略性的,有利于中国的资源禀赋战略。首先,中国在非洲的直接投资主要是资源寻求,制造业附加值最低。其次,中国已经成功地在其他资源丰富的非洲国家复制了安哥拉模式,而且据说大多数基础设施贷款换自然资源的易货交易都被低估了。此外还有一项资源支持贷款安排,根据该安排,中国的违约贷款将以自然资源偿还。第三,尽管中国声称其财政援助对非洲的增长和发展进程至关重要,但很大一部分援助用于非开发项目,如建设议会和政府大楼。这让人们相信,中国利用援助获得非洲领导人的外交认可,而资源丰富和(或)制度不稳定的国家是最受关注的目标。上述论点支持了为什么非洲对中国的出口主导了中国对非洲的其他金融流动,并且主要由自然资源组成。因此,本研究旨在通过中国对自然资源的需求和非洲对资本的需求来预测中非经济一体化,这两者都反映在非洲对中国的出口中。该研究使用MODWT-ARIMA混合预测技术对现有中非双边贸易数据集(1992-2021)进行了短期预测,发现非洲对中国的出口可能从2022年的1192亿美元平均下降到2026年的136.8亿美元。这一发现恰逢中国对非洲自然资源的需求预计将下降的时期。
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引用次数: 0
How are companies involved in the construction of the trans Sumatra toll road, in Indonesia? Role analysis and development policy 参与印尼跨苏门答腊收费公路建设的公司是如何运作的?角色分析和发展政策
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2588
Vera Finidia Indah, Budiman Rusli, Rita Myrna, Zaidan Nawawi
Toll road infrastructure development is one of the development priorities of the government of Indonesia a developed country. To develop toll road infrastructure to run smoothly, it is necessary to involve the government and the private sector. This research aims to analyze the role of the government and land acquisition constraints in the construction of the trans Sumatra toll road. This research uses a qualitative-explorative method to explore the research topic. Determination of the research topic is done by using biblioshiny application analysis. Then the data is collected from observation, documents from the website, and applicable literature. The data collected was then analyzed using Nvivo 12 Pro Software and Vensim PLE X64 Software to provide accurate and systematic visualization and description. The results of this study found that the trans Sumatra toll road construction project is a national development project. Then the cooperation relationship carried out by the government in the construction of the trans Sumatra toll road is regulated through policies that run in 2014–Present. The companies involved in accelerating the construction of the trans-Sumatra toll road are PT Hutama Karya and PT Waskita Sriwijaya Tol. Another finding in this study is that there are still toll road sections that have not operated and have been stopped due to customary land acquisition issues.
收费公路基础设施建设是发达国家印尼政府的发展重点之一。要发展收费公路基础设施,使其顺利运行,政府和私营部门的参与是必要的。本研究旨在分析政府与土地征用约束在跨苏门答腊收费公路建设中的作用。本研究采用定性-探索性方法对研究课题进行探究。采用文献应用分析的方法确定研究课题。然后通过观察、网站文件和适用文献收集数据。然后使用Nvivo 12 Pro软件和Vensim PLE X64软件对收集的数据进行分析,以提供准确和系统的可视化和描述。本研究结果发现,跨苏门答腊收费公路建设项目为国家级开发项目。然后通过2014 -至今运行的政策规范政府在跨苏门答腊收费公路建设中开展的合作关系。参与加速跨苏门答腊收费公路建设的公司是PT Hutama Karya和PT Waskita Sriwijaya Tol。这项研究的另一个发现是,由于习惯性的土地征用问题,仍然有收费公路路段没有运营,并且已经停止。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of big data analytics in project success: Mediating role of intellectual capital and knowledge sharing 大数据分析对项目成功的影响:智力资本和知识共享的中介作用
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2583
Diego Norena-Chavez, Eleftherios Thalassinos
Purpose: This study empirically investigates the effect of big data analytics (BDA) on project success (PS). Additionally, in this study, the investigation includes an examination of how intellectual capital (IC) and (KS) act as mediators in the correlation between BDA and KS. Lastly, a connection between entrepreneurial leadership (EL) and BDA is also explored. Design/Methodology- Using a sample of 422 senior-level employees from the IT sector in Peru. The partial least squares structural equation modeling technique tested the hypothesized relationships. Findings- According to the findings, the relationship between BDA and PS is mediated by structural capital (SC) and relational capital (RC), and BDA demonstrates a positive and noteworthy correlation with PS. Furthermore, EL is positively associated with BDA in a significant manner. Practical implications- The finding of this study reinforce the corporate experience of BDA and suggest how senior levels of the IT sector can promote SC, RC, and EL. Originality/Value- This study is one of the first to consider big data analytics as an important antecedent of project success. With little or no research on the interrelationship of big data analytics, intellectual capital and knowledge sharing the study contributes by investigating the mediating role of intellectual capital and knowledge sharing on the relationship between big data analytics and project success.
目的:本研究对大数据分析(BDA)对项目成功(PS)的影响进行实证研究。此外,在本研究中,调查还包括检查智力资本(IC)和(KS)如何在BDA和KS之间的相关性中起中介作用。最后,本文还探讨了创业领导力与企业绩效评估之间的关系。设计/方法-使用来自秘鲁IT部门的422名高级员工的样本。偏最小二乘结构方程建模技术验证了假设的关系。研究发现:BDA和PS之间的关系是由结构资本(SC)和关系资本(RC)介导的,其中BDA与PS之间存在显著的正相关关系。此外,EL与BDA之间存在显著的正相关关系。实际意义-本研究的发现加强了BDA的企业经验,并建议IT部门的高层如何促进SC, RC和EL。独创性/价值——这项研究是第一个将大数据分析视为项目成功的重要先决条件的研究之一。在对大数据分析、智力资本和知识共享之间的相互关系研究很少或没有的情况下,本研究通过调查智力资本和知识共享在大数据分析与项目成功之间的关系中的中介作用做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Development strategies for reducing infant mortality: A focus on healthcare infrastructure and policy in emerging Asian countries 降低婴儿死亡率的发展战略:关注亚洲新兴国家的保健基础设施和政策
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2585
Sriyanto Sriyanto, Luqman Khalil, Imran Naseem, Abdelmohsen A. Nassani, Rima H. Binsaeed, Khalid Zaman, Hailan Salamun, Mohamed Haffar
The journey towards better healthcare sustainability in Asian nations demands a comprehensive investigation into the impact of urban governance, poverty, and female literacy on infant mortality rates. This study undertakes a rigorous exploration of these key factors to pave the way for evidence-based policy interventions, utilizing data from a panel of six selected Asian countries: Pakistan, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, spanning the years 2001 to 2020. The findings reveal that adequate sanitation facilities, higher female literacy rates, and sustained economic growth contribute to a reduction in infant mortality. Conversely, increased poverty levels and limited women’s autonomy exacerbate the infant mortality rates observed in these countries. The Granger causality analysis validates the reciprocal relationship between urban sanitation (and poverty) and infant mortality rates. Furthermore, the study establishes a causal relationship where female literacy rates Granger-cause infant mortality rates, and conversely, infant mortality rates Granger-cause women’s autonomy in these countries. The variance decomposition analysis indicates that sustained economic growth, improved female literacy rates, and enhanced women’s empowerment will likely impact infant mortality rates in the coming decade. Consequently, in low-income regions where numerous children face potentially hazardous circumstances, it is imperative to allocate resources towards establishing and maintaining accessible fundamental knowledge regarding sanitation services, as this will aid in reducing infant mortality rates.
亚洲国家要实现更好的医疗保健可持续性,就需要对城市治理、贫困和女性识字率对婴儿死亡率的影响进行全面调查。本研究对这些关键因素进行了严格的探索,为基于证据的政策干预铺平道路,利用了从2001年到2020年六个选定的亚洲国家(巴基斯坦、中国、印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和菲律宾)的小组数据。调查结果显示,适当的卫生设施、较高的女性识字率和持续的经济增长有助于降低婴儿死亡率。相反,贫穷程度的增加和妇女自主权的限制加剧了这些国家的婴儿死亡率。格兰杰因果分析证实了城市卫生(和贫困)与婴儿死亡率之间的相互关系。此外,该研究还确立了一种因果关系,即在这些国家中,女性识字率与婴儿死亡率之间存在因果关系,反之,婴儿死亡率与妇女自主权之间存在因果关系。方差分解分析表明,持续的经济增长、妇女识字率的提高和妇女赋权的增强可能会影响未来十年的婴儿死亡率。因此,在许多儿童面临潜在危险情况的低收入地区,必须拨出资源,建立和保持有关卫生服务的基本知识,因为这将有助于降低婴儿死亡率。
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引用次数: 0
Organisational culture as a prerequisite for human resource management in public administration and its change in the time of COVID-19 组织文化作为公共行政人力资源管理的前提及其在COVID-19时代的变化
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2277
Marie Mikusova, Ivona Vrdoljak-Raguz, Terezie Krestova, Nadezda Klabusayova
Organisational culture stands as a fundamental prerequisite for the efficacious operation of any given organisation. The primary aim of this study is to discern potential alterations within the dimensions of organisational culture across the pre-COVID-19, contemporary, and favoured paradigms within the realm of public administration. The data set was obtained from a cohort of 1189 officials in the Czech Republic. The Organisational Culture Assessment Instrument (OCAI) was deployed for the purposes of conducting an online survey. The dominance of the clan archetype across all examined time frames has been corroborated. In addition, a statistically significant manifestation of these dimensions has been determined. In relation to pertinent variables, specifically gender, age, tenure, manager gender, and the dimensions typifying organisational culture, no statistically significant correlations have emerged. Respondents have not reported a sense of work-life imbalance in the aftermath of the pandemic. In summary, it is deduced that the pandemic has not exerted a drastic influence on the metamorphosis of organisational culture within the ambit of public administration. This study provides invaluable information on the repercussions of the pandemic within a sphere that, as an intangible constituent, often goes under-recognised. Mastery of the positioning of dimensions across diverse archetypes is of paramount significance for managers, as it can provide guidance in the cultivation of an apt organisational culture.
组织文化是任何组织有效运作的基本前提。本研究的主要目的是在公共行政领域内,通过covid -19前、当代和受青睐的范式,识别组织文化维度内的潜在变化。该数据集来自捷克共和国1189名官员。“组织文化评估工具”(OCAI)的目的是进行网上调查。在所有被检查的时间框架中,氏族原型的主导地位已得到证实。此外,已经确定了这些维度的统计显着表现。对于相关变量,特别是性别、年龄、任期、管理者性别和组织文化的维度,没有统计学上显著的相关性出现。受访者没有报告大流行后工作与生活不平衡的感觉。总之,可以推断,大流行病并未对公共行政领域内组织文化的转变产生重大影响。这项研究提供了关于这一流行病在一个领域内的影响的宝贵信息,而这一领域作为一个无形的组成部分往往没有得到充分认识。掌握跨不同原型的维度定位对管理者来说是至关重要的,因为它可以为培养恰当的组织文化提供指导。
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引用次数: 0
Enlightenment of foreign citizens’ online political participation on China—Based on the case study of America, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan 外国公民网络政治参与对中国的启示——以美国、新加坡、韩国和日本为例
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2527
Haisheng Hu, Samuel Amponsah Odei
The rapid progress of information technology has made public online participation in policy formulation an inevitable product of modern government reshaping and reconstruction. However, compared with developed countries, citizens’ online participation in policy formulation in China started relatively late. Thus, in order to explore an effective and efficient method for Chinese citizens’ participation in policy formulation, this research made a brief review of the experiences from the typical developed country of United States of America at first, followed by some other developed countries such as Singapore, South Korea, and Japan in Asia with similar situations. Still, combined with the current situation of the China itself into consideration, this research further proposes targeted recommendations. It is expected that the findings in this research could provide some references for the Chinese government to form more effective and efficient theoretical frameworks targeted at the future development trends of the Chinese society and accordingly, to improve the construction of democracy in China.
信息技术的飞速发展,使公众在线参与政策制定成为现代政府重塑和重建的必然产物。然而,与发达国家相比,中国公民在线参与政策制定起步较晚。因此,为了探索一条有效、高效的中国公民参与政策制定的途径,本研究首先对典型发达国家美国的经验进行了简要的回顾,然后对亚洲其他一些类似情况的发达国家,如新加坡、韩国、日本等进行了简要的回顾。同时,结合中国自身的现状,本研究进一步提出了针对性的建议。希望本文的研究成果能够为中国政府针对未来中国社会的发展趋势,形成更加有效、高效的理论框架,进而完善中国的民主建设提供一定的参考。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of governance on capital flows in Sub-Saharan African countries 治理对撒哈拉以南非洲国家资本流动的影响
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2122
Abieyuwa Ohonba, Gbenga Wilfred Akinola
This paper examines the effect of governance in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Specifically, this study investigates (i) the interacting impact of government efficiency, regulatory quality, and the rule of law alongside other socioeconomic variables to determine foreign capital inflow (FCI) based on each economic SSA bloc; and (ii) the characteristic drivers of FCI, impacting economic growth in the SSA countries. Descriptive statistics, static models, least square dummy variables (LSDVs) and the dynamic system general method of moment (GMM) were employed as the study’s estimating techniques. Based on the result of the LSDV, food security and the rule of law significantly impact FCI in the sub-economic blocs in the region. Only six countries across the four economic blocs responded to food security and the rule of law in the model. The dynamic system-GMM provided evidence of five socioeconomic variables and three governance variables contributing to FCI. The findings revealed (i) regulatory quality and the rule of law are governance variables that significantly impacted FCI; and (ii) food security failed to significantly impact FCI in the SSA region. However, inflation, life expectancy, the human capital index, exchange rate and gross domestic product (GDP) growth impacted FCI significantly. In the aggregate, inflation, regulatory quality, exchange rate and the human capital index exhibited positive relationships, while other variables such as life expectancy, government effectiveness and the rule of law appeared significant but inversely impacted FCI in the SSA region. The key policy implication recommendation from this study is that a good legal framework could moderate the flow of foreign capital in favour of growth as it creates a strong foundation for sustainable economic development in the region.
本文考察了治理在撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)国家的效果。具体而言,本研究探讨了(i)政府效率、监管质量和法治与其他社会经济变量的相互影响,以确定每个经济SSA集团的外国资本流入(FCI);(ii)影响SSA国家经济增长的FCI特征驱动因素。采用描述性统计、静态模型、最小二乘虚拟变量(lsdv)和动态系统一般矩量法(GMM)作为研究的估计技术。根据LSDV的结果,粮食安全和法治对该地区分经济集团的FCI有显著影响。在该模型中,四个经济集团中只有六个国家对粮食安全和法治做出了回应。动态系统- gmm提供了五个社会经济变量和三个治理变量对FCI的贡献的证据。研究结果显示:(1)监管质量和法治是显著影响FCI的治理变量;(ii)粮食安全未能显著影响SSA地区的FCI。然而,通货膨胀、预期寿命、人力资本指数、汇率和国内生产总值(GDP)增长对FCI有显著影响。总体而言,通胀、监管质量、汇率和人力资本指数呈正相关,而预期寿命、政府有效性和法治等其他变量对SSA地区的FCI表现出显著的负相关影响。这项研究的关键政策建议是,良好的法律框架可以缓和外国资本的流动,有利于增长,因为它为该地区的可持续经济发展奠定了坚实的基础。
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引用次数: 0
Development of micromodels of traffic flows, taking into account environmental factors 发展考虑环境因素的交通流微观模型
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2191
Irina Makarova, Vadim Mavrin, Polina Buyvol
The article considers an actual problem of organizing a safe and sustainable urban transport system. We have examined the existing positive global experience in both infrastructural and managerial decisions. Then to assess possible solutions at the stage of infrastructure design, we have developed the simulation micromodels of transport network sections of the medium-sized city (Naberezhnye Chelny) with a rectangular building type. The models make it possible to determine the optimal parameters of the traffic flow, under which pollutant emissions from cars would not lead to high concentrations of pollutants. Also, the model allows to obtain the calculated values of the volume of emissions of pollutants and the parameters of the traffic flow (speed, time of passage of the section, etc.). On specific examples, the proposed method’s effectiveness is shown. Case studies of cities of different sizes and layouts are implementation examples and possible uses proposed by the models. This study has shown the rationality of the suggested solution at the stage of assessing infrastructure projects and choosing the best option for sustainable transport development. The proposed research method is universal and can be applied in any city.
本文考虑了构建安全可持续的城市交通系统的实际问题。我们审查了在基础设施和管理决策方面现有的积极的全球经验。然后,为了在基础设施设计阶段评估可能的解决方案,我们开发了矩形建筑类型的中型城市(Naberezhnye Chelny)交通网络部分的模拟微观模型。该模型可以确定交通流的最佳参数,在此参数下,汽车的污染物排放不会导致污染物的高浓度。通过该模型可以得到污染物排放量的计算值和交通流的参数(车速、路段通过时间等)。具体算例表明了该方法的有效性。不同规模和布局的城市的案例研究是模型提出的实施示例和可能的用途。本研究在评估基建项目和选择可持续交通发展的最佳方案阶段,显示了建议解决方案的合理性。所提出的研究方法具有普遍性,适用于任何城市。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of macroeconomic and environmental factors on innovation in EU member countries 宏观经济和环境因素对欧盟成员国创新的影响
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2560
Melina Dritsaki, Chaido Dritsaki, Eleni Tsianaka
This paper examines the long-run relationship between innovation and macroeconomic and environmental factors in the EU during the period 1990–2020. In the paper, the patents are used as a proxy of the innovation index. The market openness, per capita GDP, foreign direct investment, and oil prices are used as proxies for macroeconomic factors whereas per capita energy consumption, per capita CO2 emissions, and renewable energy sources are proxies for environmental factors. For the analysis of this relationship, two-panel count data models are used, the Poisson regression model and negative binomial model as well as the ARDL cointegration technique and the Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality test. The results of the negative binomial model showed that trade openness, renewable energy sources, and CO2 emissions have a significant and negative relationship with innovation, while GDP, investment, energy consumption, and oil prices have a significant and positive relationship with innovation. Furthermore, the causality test of Dumitrescu and Hurlin showed the presence of an unidirectional causal relationship between per capita CO2 emissions and per capita energy consumption towards innovation.
本文考察了1990-2020年期间欧盟创新与宏观经济和环境因素之间的长期关系。本文采用专利数作为创新指标的代理指标。宏观经济因素以市场开放程度、人均GDP、外商直接投资、石油价格为指标,环境因素以人均能源消费、人均二氧化碳排放、可再生能源为指标。为了分析这种关系,我们使用了双面板计数数据模型、泊松回归模型和负二项模型,以及ARDL协整技术和Dumitrescu和Hurlin因果检验。负二项模型结果表明,贸易开放程度、可再生能源和二氧化碳排放与创新呈显著负相关,而GDP、投资、能源消费和油价与创新呈显著正相关。此外,Dumitrescu和Hurlin的因果检验表明,人均二氧化碳排放量与人均创新能耗之间存在单向因果关系。
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引用次数: 0
Role of digital leadership towards sustainable business performance: A parallel mediation model 数字化领导对可持续业务绩效的作用:一个平行中介模型
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2416
Fahad Saddique, Beenish Ramzan, Shouvik Sanyal, Jebreel Alamari
After the pandemic (COVID-19), there is a dire need to gain a competitive advantage for tourism organizations which can be accomplished by implementing new technologies to facilitate sustainable healthier services. Given that, the study aims to shed light on the importance of digital leadership to improve sustainable business performance considering the parallel mediation of digital technology and digital technology support in the tourism sector of Pakistan. The sample population consists of technology-based tourism organizations in Pakistan. Cochran’s formula was chosen for sampling, in which 37 organizations with 792 employees were selected for data through a random sampling technique. The collected data were analyzed through structural equation modeling, and findings reveal that digital leadership positively influences sustainable business performance. Furthermore, the mediating role of technological leadership support and digital technologies partially mediates the association between digital leadership and sustainable performance.
在2019冠状病毒病大流行之后,旅游组织迫切需要获得竞争优势,这可以通过实施新技术来促进可持续的健康服务来实现。鉴于此,本研究旨在通过巴基斯坦旅游业中数字技术和数字技术支持的平行中介,阐明数字领导对提高可持续业务绩效的重要性。样本人口由巴基斯坦的技术型旅游组织组成。选取Cochran公式进行抽样,通过随机抽样技术,选取37家组织792名员工作为数据。通过结构方程模型对收集的数据进行分析,发现数字化领导对可持续经营绩效有积极影响。此外,技术领导支持和数字技术的中介作用部分地中介了数字领导与可持续绩效之间的关系。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development
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