Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Croatia

Abstract

The main goal of this paper is to assess the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Croatia. We estimate two effects of the pandemic on mortality: (1) excess mortality during 2020 and (2) the age- and cause-specific components of life expectancy decline in 2020. We calculate excess mortality in 2020 as the difference between the registered number of deaths in 2020 and the expected number of deaths from a Poisson regression model based on weekly death counts and population exposures by age and sex from 2016 to 2019. Using decomposition techniques, we estimate age- and cause-specific components (distinguishing COVID-19-related deaths from deaths from other causes) of life expectancy decline in 2020. Our results show that excess mortality in 2020 almost entirely results from the second, autumn-winter wave of the epidemic in Croatia. Expectedly, we find the highest excess in deaths in older age groups. In Croatia, life expectancy in 2020 fell by almost eight months for men and about seven months for women. This decline is mostly attributable to COVID-19-related mortality in older ages, especially among men.