Urban growth dynamics modeling through urban DNA in Tehran metropolitan region

Abstract

ABSTRACT The spatial models dealing with urban growth dynamics have been widely studied, while rare works have considered under-developed countries. Several problems have been detected in creating, calibrating and applying urban growth models and changing land use. The present work aims the modelling land-use changes through the CA-GA model in which a frame is provided for analysis and producing a map of growth patterns in urban areas in different spatial scales to study and analyse the increasing urban growth in Tehran. To consider the land-use changes in Tehran, ETM+TM images of 1985, 1992, 2000, and 2020 were selected to be analysed by the CA-GA algorithm to model the growth of the urban areas. The total kappa of results in Tehran is about 0.93, indicating the required precision and confidence of applied combinative genetic-Cellular automata modelling methods to model urban development.