COVID-19 impact on excess deaths of various causes in the United States

Abstract

ABSTRACT Media regarding COVID-19 fatality counts is crucial, affecting policy and health measures nationwide. However, misinformation regarding other causes of death has led to dubious claims about the seriousness of the coronavirus. This research aims to identify the changes in a dozen causes of death during the pandemic using CDC data from 1999 to 2020. Using the Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS) algorithm, this project estimated the mortality of eleven causes of death for 2020 under the assumption of no COVID-19 pandemic. Using Power BI and Tableau, this data was visualized together with 2020 actual death counts to determine which causes of death were significantly impacted by the coronavirus. The dashboard revealed an increase in several causes of death including Alzheimer’s Disease and Diabetes, a decrease in Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease deaths, and a slight increase in Influenza deaths. These findings, while at odds with much of the media surrounding COVID-19 mortality, are corroborated by adjacent scientific research.