Focused review of mathematical modeling of radiation-related abnormalities in the Techa River cohort -

Abstract

Mathematical models describe relationships between numerical values. Adequate models can make testable extrapolations. A requirement to a mathematical model is its validity: once construed, a model and the region of validity should be tested. Here is reviewed a series of studies of the Techa river cohort, where mathematical models were claimed to reveal relationships between the dynamics of the hemato- and lymphopoiesis and the evolution of radiation dose rate over time. However, mathematical models describe rather than reveal relationships. The use of mathematical models without adequate verification may be conductive to the overestimation of biological effects of the low-dose low-rate ionizing radiation. Possible mechanisms of such overestimation are discussed.