Research on Electricity Demand Forecasting Model and Application of China Adapting to Supply-Side Structural Reform

Abstract

China's economy has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth. Supply-side structural reform, as a main line of economic transformation, will have profound impacts on economic growth rate, industrial structure, and growth momentum. In-depth analysis of the impact of supply-side structural reform, scientific research and analysis of electricity demand growth trends, has profound implications for the development of the electricity industry. By building a electricity demand forecasting model adapting to supply-side structural reform and forecasting China's electricity demand, China's electricity demand is expected to continue to grow steadily. In 2035 and 2050, its electricity demand will reach 1245 GWh to 1324 GWh and 1409 GWh to 1534 GWh. The tertiary industry and residential electricity demand will become the main driving force for the growth of total electricity demand. In key industries, the contribution rate of manufacturing industry exceeds high energy consumption industry.