An agent-based and microsimulated model of the epidemiology impact of closure of schools during the COVID-19 pandemic in the region of Aysen in Chile

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact on the spread of the COVID-19 virus of making virtual the educational system in the Region of Aysen in Chile. The analyzes is made through a mix of agent-based modelling and microsim-ulation techniques, using multiple sources of administrative and census data. The behavior of 103,000 habitants of the region is modeled during each one of the seven days of the week, for 10 weeks. The diffusion of the virus is mod-eled as consequence of the social interaction of the individuals in five different environments: home, the transportation system, at work, the educational sys-tem and in places of entertainment. The results show that the closure of the educational system is important to flatten the curve of contagious. In a world where people don't do social distancing, it could lower R0 by one unit.