PREDICTING THE FUTURE ECOLOGICAL NICHE OF $CULEX$ $PIPIENS$ AND ASSOCIATED BIORISKS IN ARMENIA

Abstract

West Nile virus disease is an emerging infectious vector borne disease. Of registered invasive species of mosquitoes in Armenia, Culex pipiens is the most implicated one in the potential transmission of West Nile virus (WNV). In previous years (1985–1999), research on circulation of mosquito-borne arboviruses in Armenia was conducted by the research Institute of Epidemiology and WNV, Batai, Sindbis, Tahyna and Gheta were found in mosquitoes. The only mosquito-borne disease historically registered in Armenia was malaria, without autochtonous cases since 2006. However, per retrospective medical chart review study (2016–2019) in the Nork Infection Clinical Hospital, about 30% of febrile patients is diagnosed as “Fever of Unknown Origin”. We hypothesize that these arboviruses are circulating in Armenia and largely mis-diagnosed and/or under reported. Based on the geographical locations of mosquitoes, the MaxEnt model with 19 bioclimatic variables was developed to predict future ecological niche of C. pipiens and potential high-risk areas for West Nile virus disease. It is the first step for the implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time alert of biorisk.