Calibrating Agent-Based Models Using Uncertainty Quantification Methods

Abstract

: Agent-based models (ABMs) can be found across a number of diverse application areas ranging from simulating consumer behaviour to infectious disease modelling. Part of their popularity is due to their ability to simulateindividualbehavioursanddecisionsoverspaceandtime. However, whilstthereareplentifulexamples within the academic literature, these models are only beginning to make an impact within policy areas. Whilst frameworks such as NetLogo make the creation of ABMs relatively easy, a number of key methodological issues, including the quantification of uncertainty, remain. In this paper we draw on state-of-the-art approaches from the fields of uncertainty quantification and model optimisation to describe a novel framework for the calibration of ABMs using History Matching and Approximate Bayesian Computation. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on three example models of increasing complexity: (i) Sugarscape to illustrate the approach on a toy example; (ii) a model of the movement of birds to explore the efficacy of our framework and compare it to alternative calibration approaches and; (iii) the RISC model of farmer decision making to demonstrate its value in a real application. The results highlight the efficiency and accuracy with which this approach can be used to calibrate ABMs. This method can readily be applied to local or national-scale ABMs, such as those linked to the creation or tailoring of key policy decisions.