Between the System and the Opposition: The Evolution of the Electoral Portrait of the National Rally, 2017–2022

Abstract

The French electoral cycle that ended in 2022 proved that far-right leader Marine Le Pen has succeeded in establishing herself as the recognised standard-bearer of the French opposition. The success of the 2022 elections was another milestone in the successive electoral ascent of the Rassemblement Nationale: in the 2012 presidential election, Marine Le Pen obtained 17.9% of the vote, 21% in 2017, and in 2022 she received 23% in the first round and 41% in the second. This expansion of the electoral base was accompanied by a change in the party's electoral profile, as evidenced by the sociological research that was the main source for this article. First of all, the author demonstrates which social categories were responsible for the rise in Le Pen's popularity and how the party's rhetoric and, at times, policy positions were transformed in response to the mood of voters. She also analyses the correlation between the unstable socio-economic situation and the strengthening of the extreme right, suggesting the extent to which the vote for Le Pen is influenced not only by the financial and social status of the voter, but also by the anxiety triggered by worsening economic issues and the mainstreaming of immigration and security issues. Finally, an examination of the values of Le Pen's electorate allows one to look at the perspectives and constraints of the “Marinism” strategy in a broader context.