Tail Risk: Part 3, The Return on Safe and Liquid Assets

Abstract

the Financial Crisis of 2007-09. This is not particularly surprising: There are many reasons, from an increased demand for safe assets to monetary policy responses, for why risk-free rates fall during a period of financial turmoil. However, even after financial markets calmed down, this state of affairs persisted. In fact, by 2018, several years after the crisis, government bond yields showed no sign of rebounding. Figure 1 shows the change in long-term government yields for Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom.1 Intuitively, government bonds have two key attributes: safety and liquidity. Safety refers to the observation that, different from risks for other assets in the economy, the risk of default for U.S. government bonds is almost zero, implying that at maturity the investor will almost surely receive the principal amount. Liquidity refers to the fact that government bonds are quite similar to cash, implying that if the investor needs the money before maturity, he Tail Risk: Part 3, The Return on Safe and Liquid Assets