{"title":"A preliminary test of a human-caused fire danger prediction model.","authors":"Chau-Chin Lin","doi":"10.7075/TJFS.200212.0525","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, an integrated model that combines bio-physical components related to fire hazards and human behavioral components related to fire risks is proposed. The model is shown to be as an improvement over the theoretical fire danger model. It predicts occurrence/potential based on ignition probability and fire use intentions of forest hikers. Testing of the model was conducted in SheiPa and Yushan National Parks located in central and southern Taiwan. The candidate variables provide acceptable results that support the structure of this conceptual model. Due to limited research time in this study, further tests of the conceptual model are needed to evaluate and improve the performance of the model.","PeriodicalId":22180,"journal":{"name":"Taiwan Journal of Forest Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2002-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"4","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Taiwan Journal of Forest Science","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.7075/TJFS.200212.0525","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Abstract
In this paper, an integrated model that combines bio-physical components related to fire hazards and human behavioral components related to fire risks is proposed. The model is shown to be as an improvement over the theoretical fire danger model. It predicts occurrence/potential based on ignition probability and fire use intentions of forest hikers. Testing of the model was conducted in SheiPa and Yushan National Parks located in central and southern Taiwan. The candidate variables provide acceptable results that support the structure of this conceptual model. Due to limited research time in this study, further tests of the conceptual model are needed to evaluate and improve the performance of the model.
期刊介绍：
The Taiwan Journal of Forest Science is an academic publication that welcomes contributions from around the world. The journal covers all aspects of forest research, both basic and applied, including Forest Biology and Ecology (tree breeding, silviculture, soils, etc.), Forest Management (watershed management, forest pests and diseases, forest fire, wildlife, recreation, etc.), Biotechnology, and Wood Science. Manuscripts acceptable to the journal include (1) research papers, (2) research notes, (3) review articles, and (4) monographs. A research note differs from a research paper in its scope which is less-comprehensive, yet it contains important information. In other words, a research note offers an innovative perspective or new discovery which is worthy of early disclosure.
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