Pandemic primary: the interactive effects of COVID-19 prevalence and age on voter turnout

Abstract

ABSTRACT On March 17, 2020, the state of Florida held its Presidential Preference Primary amid a growing global pandemic. At that time, health officials and the media continued to report on the disproportionate dangers of serious health complications and death from COVID-19 for the elderly population. How did the prevalence of COVID-19 along with age affect Florida voters’ propensity to vote on Election Day? Using individual-level voting data from the primary along with county COVID-19 rates, I test the interactive effects of the prevalence of COVID-19 and voter age on the probability of voting in person or not voting at all. I find that for both Democrats and Republicans, voters were more likely to not vote in any manner as the county COVID-19 rate and their age increased. This effect is more pronounced for Republicans. No differences in probabilities of in person voting occurred for Democrat voters based upon age, but older Republicans were less likely to vote in person as the county COVID-19 rate increased.