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Have heads cooled? Changes in radical partisanship from 2020–2022 头脑冷静了吗?2020-2022年激进党派关系的变化
3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.1080/17457289.2023.2277446
Evan W. Sandlin
ABSTRACTRecent polling shows significant levels of radical partisanship among the US public in the form of violent partisan schadenfreude and violent partisan attitudes. Previous research shows that the partisan intensity underlying these sentiments increases around presidential elections and when political actors use violent rhetoric. Has lethal mass partisanship declined in the years after the 2020 election, especially now that one of the main purveyors of violent rhetoric has left office? This paper uses panel data from the Understanding America Study (UAS) to show how levels of radical partisanship have changed from the post-election period of 2020 to the same time period in 2021 and 2022. The results demonstrate that rates of violent partisan attitudes have declined in 2021 and 2022 compared to 2020, especially amongst those who were most supportive of former President Donald Trump. However, changes in partisan schadenfreude have no discernable pattern. The results demonstrate both that radical partisanship is not on a uniformly upward trajectory but likely decreases and increases with changes in political context, and that elements of radical partisanship do not vary in parallel. Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Kalmoe and Mason (Citation2019) originally termed the attitudes that make up the focus of this paper as “lethal mass partisanship.” Kalmoe and Mason (Citation2022) have since referred to these attitudes as “radical partisanship.” For the sake of clarity, I use their more recent terminology.2 The UAS received all necessary ethics approvals (approval number: BRANY IRB # 22-065-1044).3 Exact question wording and coding details can be found in the appendix.4 All schadenfreude and violence question items were only asked of those who had a Republican or Democrat partisan affiliation.5 See appendix for demographics.6 Statistical significance was ascertained using a weighted difference in means test.7 These results do not change substantially when including all participants.8 While variables such as race and gender may be seen as time invariant, data for these variables is collected on a quarterly basis for UAS respondents with the opportunity to update past answers.9 The question on approval for Trump (post-November 3rd) comes from a UAS post-election survey (UAS 318). The survey had 7,279 respondents with a response rate of 80.91%(USC Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research Citation2020) .10 These models are not estimated with fixed effects since the question about Trump support was only asked in 2020 and is therefore time-invariant.11 See appendix for this and other robustness checks.
摘要最近的民意调查显示,在美国公众中,激进的党派关系表现为暴力的党派幸灾乐祸和暴力的党派态度。先前的研究表明,在总统选举期间,当政治人物使用暴力言论时,这些情绪背后的党派强度会增加。在2020年大选后的几年里,致命的大规模党派之争是否有所减少,尤其是现在,暴力言论的主要传播者之一已经离任?本文使用了解美国研究(UAS)的面板数据来显示激进党派关系的水平如何从2020年选举后时期到2021年和2022年的同一时期发生变化。结果显示,与2020年相比,2021年和2022年,暴力党派态度的比例有所下降,尤其是在那些最支持前总统唐纳德·特朗普的人中。然而,党派幸灾乐祸的变化并没有明显的规律。结果表明,激进的党派倾向并没有统一的上升轨迹,而是可能随着政治环境的变化而减少或增加,而且激进党派倾向的要素并没有平行变化。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1 Kalmoe和Mason (Citation2019)最初将构成本文重点的态度称为“致命的大规模党派之争”。卡尔莫和梅森(Citation2022)后来将这些态度称为“激进的党派之争”。为了清楚起见,我使用他们最新的术语2 . UAS获得了所有必要的伦理批准(批准号:BRANY IRB # 22-065-1044)准确的问题措辞和编码细节可在附录中找到所有幸灾乐祸和暴力的问题只问那些有共和党或民主党党派关系的人人口统计资料见附录统计显著性是使用加权差异在经济状况调查中确定的当包括所有参与者时,这些结果并没有实质性的变化虽然种族和性别等变量可能被视为时间不变,但这些变量的数据是按季度收集的,为UAS受访者提供了更新过去答案的机会关于特朗普的支持率(11月3日之后)的问题来自usas选后调查(usas 318)。该调查有7279名受访者,回复率为80.91%(USC Dornsife经济和社会研究中心Citation2020)。10这些模型不是固定效应的估计,因为关于特朗普支持的问题只在2020年被问到,因此是时不变的参见附录,了解这个和其他健壮性检查。
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引用次数: 0
Only losers use excuses? Exploring the association between the winner-loser gap and referendum attitudes following a local referendum 只有失败者才会找借口?在地方公投后,探讨输赢差距与公投态度之间的关系
3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-12 DOI: 10.1080/17457289.2023.2281381
Thomas Karv, Kim Strandberg
Consultative referendums are becoming more widely used as a way of responding to rising public discontent with the workings of representative democracy. Consequently, consultative referendums have become an integral part of democratic decision-making processes across the world. However, how the population reacts to the referendum outcome is expected to differ among the population as referendums, by design, divides the participants into winners and losers. In turn, creating a winner-loser gap with potentially polarizing societal consequences. This study therefore seeks to explore how this winner-loser gap is associated with several types of referendum attitudes following the outcome of a local referendum. Using survey data (N = 3113) gathered after a high stakes local referendum in Finland, the more explicit research purpose is therefore to analyze how individual-level opinions about referendums, turnout thresholds and margin of victory thresholds are related to the winner-loser gap. Additionally, we also control for whether these associations are moderated by external efficacy and political trust. The results clearly imply that the winner-loser gap have consequences for several types of referendum attitudes, contributing to scholarship about the effects derived from the winner-loser gap.
作为回应公众对代议制民主运作日益不满的一种方式,协商性公投正被越来越广泛地使用。因此,协商性公民投票已成为世界各地民主决策进程的一个组成部分。然而,人们对公投结果的反应预计会有所不同,因为公投有意将参与者分为赢家和输家。反过来,造成赢家和输家之间的差距,可能导致社会两极分化。因此,本研究旨在探讨这种输赢差距如何与当地公投结果后的几种公民投票态度相关联。因此,使用芬兰高风险地方公投后收集的调查数据(N = 3113),更明确的研究目的是分析个人层面对公投、投票率阈值和胜利阈值的看法如何与输赢差距相关。此外,我们还控制这些关联是否受到外部效能和政治信任的调节。结果清楚地表明,输赢差距对几种公投态度有影响,有助于研究输赢差距产生的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of signing ballot petitions on turnout 签署投票请愿书对投票率的影响
3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1080/17457289.2023.2281374
Samuel Franklin Harper
ABSTRACTDo ballot initiatives increase voter turnout? Some studies find a strong impact while others find the relationship to be modest and/or conditional. Either way, the underlying mechanism is not well understood. Here, we build on past work by hypothesizing that signing a ballot petition acts as a personalized form of campaign contact, increasing the likelihood of turnout. Previous investigations have been aggregate in nature, or have had to rely on either samples of petition signers or county-level inferences. We procured the complete lists of initiative petitions signers for two recent, high-profile state ballot measures in Arkansas, among the most frequent direct democracy users among the American states. By supplementing these individual-level data with the state voter file, we assess the impact of having signed a petition, controlling for age and vote history. Our results confirm earlier findings that signing a petition increases the probability of voter turnout, especially among irregular voters. This has consequences for both candidate and initiative elections in jurisdictions that, like Arkansas, conduct both elections at the same time. Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Still other thinkers have hypothesized a role for ideology in the initiative-turnout relationship. Popularly-initiated same-sex marriage bans and marijuana-legalization measures, for example, have been said to have energized conservative and progressive turnout, respectively (e.g., Smith, DeSantis, and Kassel Citation2006). However, Biggers (Citation2014) finds no evidence that such measures increased turnout for any particular group, nor were there marked turnout increases among voters generally perceived as being concerned with moral issues, such as poorer, older, or fundamentalist Christian voters.2 The 2014 minimum-wage initiative was “An Act to Increase the Arkansas Minimum Wage.” The measure gradually increased the state’s minimum wage from $6.25 an hour to $8.50 an hour by 2017 (UADA Public Policy Center Citation2014). The 2016 marijuana initiative was “The Arkansas Medical Marijuana Amendment of 2016,” and stood to legalize the medical use of cannabis in the State of Arkansas (UADA Public Policy Center Citation2016).3 Arkansas law establishes the minimum number of signers for a petition to be put to vote as eight percent of the number of voters in the last gubernatorial election for initiated acts. The 2014 petition therefore required 62,547 signatures (eight percent of the 2010 election), and the 2016 petition, a constitutional amendment, required 67,887 (eight percent of the 2014 election).4 To test the robustness of these models, we conducted four additional analyses with controls for county-level percent Black and Hispanic and county median income. The results of these models are reported in the appendix and do not affect the robustness of the individual-level-only models.5 We estimate marginal effect
摘要投票倡议会增加选民投票率吗?一些研究发现了强烈的影响,而另一些研究发现这种关系是适度的和/或有条件的。不管怎样,潜在的机制都没有被很好地理解。在这里,我们以过去的工作为基础,假设在投票请愿书上签名是一种个性化的竞选联系形式,增加了投票率的可能性。以前的调查本质上是汇总的,或者不得不依赖于请愿签名者的样本或县级的推断。我们获得了阿肯色州最近两项引人注目的州投票措施的倡议请愿签名者的完整名单,阿肯色州是美国最经常使用直接民主的州之一。通过用州选民档案补充这些个人层面的数据,我们评估了签署请愿书的影响,控制了年龄和投票历史。我们的研究结果证实了先前的发现,即在请愿书上签名会增加选民投票率的可能性,尤其是在非正规选民中。在像阿肯色州这样同时进行候选人选举和倡议选举的司法管辖区,这对候选人和倡议选举都有影响。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1还有一些思想家假设了意识形态在主动性-投票率关系中的作用。例如,普遍发起的同性婚姻禁令和大麻合法化措施,据说分别激发了保守派和进步派的投票率(例如,Smith、DeSantis和Kassel Citation2006)。然而,Biggers (Citation2014)没有发现任何证据表明这些措施增加了任何特定群体的投票率,也没有明显的投票率增加通常被认为是关心道德问题的选民,如穷人、老年人或原教旨主义基督徒选民2014年的最低工资倡议是“提高阿肯色州最低工资法案”。该措施逐步将该州的最低工资从每小时6.25美元提高到2017年的每小时8.50美元(UADA公共政策中心引文2014)。2 . 2016年的大麻倡议是“2016年阿肯色州医用大麻修正案”,主张在阿肯色州将大麻的医疗用途合法化(UADA公共政策中心引文2016)阿肯色州法律规定,提交投票的请愿书的最低签名人数为上次州长选举中发起法案的选民人数的8%。因此,2014年的请愿书需要62547个签名(占2010年选举的8%),2016年的请愿书是一项宪法修正案,需要67887个签名(占2014年选举的8%)为了测试这些模型的稳健性,我们进行了四个额外的分析,控制了县一级的黑人和西班牙裔百分比和县的中位数收入。这些模型的结果在附录中报告,并且不影响仅限个人水平的模型的稳健性我们将连续变量的边际效应估计为变量在平均值上移动两个标准差的预测概率之差(即x′±σ)。本研究得到了阿肯色大学的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of swing voting in Africa: evidence from Ghana's elections 非洲摇摆投票的决定因素:来自加纳选举的证据
3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-05 DOI: 10.1080/17457289.2023.2277450
John Taden, Daniel K. Banini, Agomor Kingsley
An increasing number of African countries are experiencing electoral power shifts, indicating that more voters are switching loyalties between parties and candidates. Theories that pin electoral change in Africa on clientelism, patronage, and ethnic cleavages fail to account for the dynamics surrounding these shifting loyalties. This study probes the factors that pry swing voters away from core supporters in African elections. Using data from a nationally representative sample of over 3000 voters across Ghana, we find evidence that voters exempted from positive clientelist inducements (gifts) were more likely to cast swing votes. We also find that voters exposed to negative clientelism (wary of violence or forceful forfeiture of benefits after elections) were more likely to cast swing votes. Nonetheless, voters wary of violence but who have received gifts in exchange for their votes were less likely to swing their vote, indicating that negative clientelism is only effective when accompanied by positive inducements. Finally, we find that voters who prioritize parties’ performance records were more likely to switch their votes from one party to another. Our results imply that the rising political power shifts on the continent are driven by an increasing share of voters unencumbered by clientelist inducements and a rising determination to prioritize national interests over parochial benefits.
越来越多的非洲国家正在经历选举权力的转移,这表明越来越多的选民正在政党和候选人之间转换忠诚。将非洲选举变化归咎于裙带关系、庇护和种族分裂的理论,未能解释围绕这些忠诚转变的动态。本研究探讨了在非洲选举中促使摇摆选民远离核心支持者的因素。利用来自加纳全国3000多名选民的代表性样本数据,我们发现证据表明,没有受到积极的客户主义诱惑(礼物)的选民更有可能投出摇摆票。我们还发现,暴露于负面裙带关系的选民(对选举后暴力或强制没收福利持谨慎态度)更有可能投出摇摆票。尽管如此,那些对暴力持谨慎态度、但曾以礼物换取选票的选民不太可能改变他们的投票,这表明消极的裙带关系只有在积极的诱惑相伴下才有效。最后,我们发现优先考虑政党绩效记录的选民更有可能从一个政党转向另一个政党。我们的研究结果表明,非洲大陆不断上升的政治权力转移是由越来越多的选民推动的,这些选民不受庇护主义诱惑的影响,并且越来越多的人决心将国家利益置于狭隘利益之上。
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引用次数: 0
Issue salience and affective polarization 问题突出和情感极化
3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1080/17457289.2023.2277429
Kyung Joon Han
ABSTRACTWhich voters hold polarized affects for political parties in Western Europe? We consider distinct characteristics of different political issues that shape political actors’ behaviors and argue that voters are more affectively polarized when they put salience on cultural issues because their stances on the issues are embedded in their deep-seated identity, value, belief, and morality. Empirically, we use measures of affective polarization that incorporate the multiparty systems of Western European countries. Using the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (Module 3), we find that voters who put salience on cultural issues are more affectively polarized than others. The result implies that rising affective polarization in the past decades might have been related to increasing priorities on cultural issues. It also implies that political parties may potentially weaken voters’ affective polarization by manipulating their issue agenda. Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Supplementary materialSupplemental data for this article can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2023.2277429Notes1 Literature on affective polarization distinguishes voters’ positive and negative feelings on political parties, their elites (e.g., party leaders), and their supporters. Affective polarization on one of these does not necessarily lead to that on others (e.g., Knudsen Citation2021). We limit our concept of affective polarization to a voter’s different and contrasting feelings toward political parties.2 Unlike the concept of voters’ ideological polarization, which indicates that voters come to have more different ideologies each other, voters’ affective polarization is basically an individual-level concept because it means that each voter comes to have more different affects for different political parties.3 Consequently, while there is one clear way to measure affective polarization in the two-party system (i.e., the difference in party affects toward two political parties), we need an alternative way to measure how diverse voters’ affects toward multiple political parties are (Wagner Citation2021).4 In this paper, we use the term of “cultural issues” to describe “new politics” or “post-materialism” issues (Flanagan and Lee Citation2003).5 Voters may dislike only political parties that belong to a rival party bloc. Nonetheless, in addition to grand coalitions that include both (left-wing and right-wing) major parties, coalition governments that embrace political parties from both sides of the political spectrum (typically a major party from one side and a minor party from the other side) have occurred in many Western European countries. For example, the Social Democratic Party government in Denmark in 1990 invited the Christian People’s Party, and the Finnish right-wing government in 2007 invited the Green League.6 As far as we are aware, there is no empirical analysis that examines how voters’ affects t
22个(既没有文化问题,也没有经济问题)和2.95个(经济问题),在1个(完全没有基于道德价值的问题)~ 5个(基于道德价值的问题很多)。我们把预算赤字、经济衰退、失业归为经济问题,把堕胎、同性婚姻、环境归为文化问题。阿富汗战争、教育、医疗保健和非法移民等问题不属于任何议题组。我们不把“非法移民”加入任何议题组,因为它既有经济意义,也有文化意义。然而,将问题添加到任何问题组都不会改变问题的道德化结果学者们对人们的问题突出性是否决定了他们个人的政治行为并没有完全达成一致(如Johns Citation2010)。尽管如此,研究发现,选民所关注的问题是他们对政党和政府看法的主要决定因素(Singer citation, 2011;汉Citation2022)点CSES(模块3)包括以下西欧国家:奥地利、丹麦、芬兰、法国、德国、希腊、爱尔兰、荷兰、挪威、葡萄牙、西班牙、瑞典和瑞士。但是,奥地利和爱尔兰被排除在外,因为没有这些国家对问题突出性的答复。以下每个国家在CSES中都有2个选举年(模块3):芬兰,德国,荷兰和挪威。13 likei¯=∑p=1N(vp×likeip)14两个度量之间的相关性为0.8131.15我们在CSES中使用选举年之前的CHES波。同时,选民在不同问题之间的突出程度受到收入不平等和移民等宏观层面经验的影响。数据来源见补充附录我们还执行了不同的稳健性检查。18 .鲁棒性检验的讨论和结果见补充附录问题突出性和情感两极分化之间存在虚假的关系,这似乎是合理的。例如,民粹主义政党的支持者可能既具有高度的情感两极分化,又重视文化问题。他们对政党的影响可能会两极分化,因为他们不赞成现有的政党。他们可能会突出文化问题,因为他们的许多政党(民粹主义激进右翼)主要是在这些问题上动员起来的(例如,移民)。尽管如此,我们的数据显示,尽管在大多数国家/选举中,他们表现出的情感两极分化程度在统计上显著高于其他人,但在大多数国家/选举中,他们对文化问题的重视程度在统计上并不显著尽管如此,我们承认,在本文中,我们没有精确地测试问题突出性和情感两极分化之间的因果关系例如,爱尔兰的主要政党将堕胎和天主教会问题委托给全民公决,以分散问题,防止小党派在这些问题上成功竞选(McGraw Citation2014)。
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引用次数: 0
Voting against parties: populist attitudes, party supply, and support for non-partisan actors 投票反对政党:民粹主义态度、政党供应和对无党派行动者的支持
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-08 DOI: 10.1080/17457289.2023.2253729
Michael Jankowski, Christina-Marie Juen, Markus Tepe
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引用次数: 0
Policy mood and thermostatic representation in developing democracies: taking the temperature in Uruguay 发展中民主国家的政策情绪和恒温代表:测量乌拉圭的温度
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-29 DOI: 10.1080/17457289.2023.2243586
Eliana Alvarez, Juan A. Bogliaccini, P. Enns, Martín Opertti, R. Queirolo
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引用次数: 0
Depressive rumination and political engagement 抑郁沉思和政治参与
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-14 DOI: 10.1080/17457289.2023.2246371
L. Bernardi, I. Gotlib, Fortunato Bernardi
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引用次数: 0
Is there a populist personality? Populist attitudes, personality, and voter preference in Australian public opinion 有民粹主义人格吗?澳大利亚公众舆论中的民粹主义态度、个性和选民偏好
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1080/17457289.2023.2243587
Paul D. Kenny, Boris Bizumic
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引用次数: 3
Voting across borders? The electoral consequences of individual transnationalism 跨国界投票?个人跨国主义的选举后果
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1080/17457289.2023.2241817
Francesco Visconti
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Elections Public Opinion and Parties
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