{"title":"Modeling COVID-19 Breakthrough Infections in a Vaccinated Population","authors":"Ming Zhu, E. Agyingi","doi":"10.37394/23202.2023.22.59","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic that originated in Wuhan, China in 2019 are still being felt globally. At the onset of the pandemic, countries had several measures in place to prevent the spread of the virus. The development and availability of COVID-19 vaccines turned out to be one of the most effective tools for containing the pandemic, especially in developed countries. This paper considers a model of COVID-19 breakthrough infections, which are cases where individuals become infected with COVID-19 despite being fully vaccinated. The model proposed is a type of the SIR model with a compartment accounting for vaccinated individuals and is governed by a system of differential equations. We compute the basic reproduction number of the model and use it to analyze the equilibria for both local and global stability. Further, we use numerical simulations of the model to understand the factors that contribute to breakthrough infections such as vaccination rates, vaccine efficacy, and virus transmission dynamics.","PeriodicalId":39422,"journal":{"name":"WSEAS Transactions on Systems and Control","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"WSEAS Transactions on Systems and Control","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.37394/23202.2023.22.59","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Mathematics","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic that originated in Wuhan, China in 2019 are still being felt globally. At the onset of the pandemic, countries had several measures in place to prevent the spread of the virus. The development and availability of COVID-19 vaccines turned out to be one of the most effective tools for containing the pandemic, especially in developed countries. This paper considers a model of COVID-19 breakthrough infections, which are cases where individuals become infected with COVID-19 despite being fully vaccinated. The model proposed is a type of the SIR model with a compartment accounting for vaccinated individuals and is governed by a system of differential equations. We compute the basic reproduction number of the model and use it to analyze the equilibria for both local and global stability. Further, we use numerical simulations of the model to understand the factors that contribute to breakthrough infections such as vaccination rates, vaccine efficacy, and virus transmission dynamics.
期刊介绍：
WSEAS Transactions on Systems and Control publishes original research papers relating to systems theory and automatic control. We aim to bring important work to a wide international audience and therefore only publish papers of exceptional scientific value that advance our understanding of these particular areas. The research presented must transcend the limits of case studies, while both experimental and theoretical studies are accepted. It is a multi-disciplinary journal and therefore its content mirrors the diverse interests and approaches of scholars involved with systems theory, dynamical systems, linear and non-linear control, intelligent control, robotics and related areas. We also welcome scholarly contributions from officials with government agencies, international agencies, and non-governmental organizations.
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
分享
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
扫码关注我们
