‘Your Luck is Our Luck’: Covid-19, the Radical Right and Low Polarisation in the 2022 Portuguese Elections

Abstract

ABSTRACT In the 2022 Portuguese legislative elections, held nearly two years after the pandemic hit the country, the incumbent Socialists improved their position, being now able to govern with an absolute majority, while populist radical right Chega experienced considerable growth. Was the pandemic a relevant factor for vote choice in these elections? The main goal of this article is to shed light on this matter. In addition to portraying this election’s background and results, we describe the degree of COVID-19-related polarisation in Portugal, analyse the salience of the pandemic in the campaign and measure the relative impact of pandemic-related perceptions vs other variables on voting behaviour. Our findings reveal that, although there was little politicisation of the pandemic and the incumbent enjoyed high levels of support among both political elites and public opinion, Chega, which was less involved in rallying around the flag, arguably sent signals that made COVID-19-related assessments relevant in terms of voting behaviour.