Mixed logit models for examining pedestrian injury severities at intersection and non-intersection locations

IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Journal of Transportation Safety & Security Pub Date : 2021-06-15 DOI:10.1080/19439962.2021.1923101
Bo Qiu, W. Fan
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引用次数: 11

Abstract

Abstract Pedestrian injury has become a national traffic-safety concern as the share of pedestrian fatality continues to increase in the last decade. Pedestrian injury severities are influenced by many factors that include driver, pedestrian, vehicle, roadway, temporal, and environmental characteristics. Results indicate that some of the factors affecting pedestrian injury severity at intersection and non-intersection locations are statistically different and using the same model to perform the estimate at both locations may result in biased results. However, few studies have been conducted to explore different contributing factors at such locations. Mixed logit models are developed to independently identify the contributing factors to pedestrian injury severity resulting from crashes at intersections and non-intersections. The estimation shows factors such as male driver, alcohol, pedestrian above 65, truck, and higher speed limit significantly increase the probability of pedestrian serious injury severities in both locations. However, the impacts tend to be more severe at intersections. Urban and wet road surfaces decrease the likelihood of suffering fatal injury at intersections. Furthermore, crash time only has impacts at intersections, while traffic control, severe weather, and day-of-week only have impacts at non-intersections. The results provide insights on developing more effective countermeasures to promote pedestrian safety.
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十字路口和非十字路口行人伤害严重程度的混合logit模型
近十年来,随着行人死亡比例的持续上升,行人伤害已成为一个全国性的交通安全问题。行人伤害严重程度受驾驶员、行人、车辆、道路、时间和环境等因素的影响。结果表明,影响交叉口和非交叉口位置行人伤害严重程度的一些因素在统计上存在差异,使用相同的模型在两个位置进行估计可能会导致结果偏差。然而,很少有研究探讨这些地点的不同影响因素。建立了混合logit模型,以独立识别十字路口和非十字路口碰撞对行人伤害严重程度的影响因素。结果表明,男性司机、酒精、65岁以上的行人、卡车和更高的限速等因素显著增加了两个地点行人严重伤害程度的概率。然而,在十字路口,这种影响往往更严重。城市和潮湿的路面减少了在交叉路口遭受致命伤害的可能性。此外,碰撞时间仅在交叉路口有影响,而交通管制、恶劣天气和工作日仅在非交叉路口有影响。研究结果为制定更有效的措施以促进行人安全提供了见解。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
15.40%
发文量
38
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