Fiscal Multipliers and Oil Price Fluctuations in Oil-Exporting Countries: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

IF 3.1 4区工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2021-11-02 DOI:10.1080/15567249.2021.1986173

S. B. Slimane, Moez Ben Tahar, Mohamed Ali Houfi

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Abstract

ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of fiscal policy on non-oil GDP within the framework of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The paper explores asymmetries related to oil price changes (increase vs. decrease) and the state of the business cycle (expansion vs. recession).We used panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model, augmented by exogenous ‘dummy’ variables to estimate fiscal multipliers within a nonlinear framework.The results suggest that (i) linear multipliers are moderate and in line with those found in previous studies; (ii) the multipliers are larger for capital than for current expenditures; (iii) when controlling for oil price changes, the expenditure multipliers are higher during oil market downturns (oil price busts); (iv) spending multipliers are significantly larger when the output gap is negative. The importance of these findings lies on their policy suggestions. These findings indicate that fiscal policy should be designed based on oil price movements and economic fluctuations.

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石油出口国的财政乘数与石油价格波动:来自海湾合作委员会国家的证据

本文的目的是分析海湾合作委员会(GCC)国家框架内财政政策对非石油GDP的影响。本文探讨了与油价变化(上涨与下跌)和商业周期状态(扩张与衰退)相关的不对称性。我们使用面板结构向量自回归(VAR)模型，辅以外生“虚拟”变量，在非线性框架内估计财政乘数。结果表明:(1)线性乘数适中，与以往研究结果一致;(二)资本的乘数大于经常支出的乘数;(iii)在控制石油价格变化的情况下，石油市场低迷(石油价格崩溃)期间的支出乘数更高;(iv)当产出缺口为负时，支出乘数显著增大。这些发现的重要性在于它们提出的政策建议。这些发现表明，财政政策应根据石油价格变动和经济波动来制定。

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来源期刊

Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy ENERGY & FUELS-

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

12.80%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

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