Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Lifting the Zero COVID-19 Policy in China.

Kun Hu, Lanjing Zhang
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Abstract

Chinese government lifted its "Zero COVID-19" policy in December 2022. The estimated COVDI-19 new cases and deaths after the policy change are 167-279 million (about 12.0% to 20.1% of the Chinese population) and 0.68-2.1 million, respectively. Recent data also revealed continuous drops in fertility rate and historically lowest growth in gross domestic production in China. Thus, balancing COVID-19 control and economic recovery in China is of paramount importance yet very difficult. Supply chain disruption, essential service reduction and shortage of intensive care units have been discussed as the challenges associated with lifting "Zero COVID-19" policy. The additional challenges may include triple epidemic of COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus and influenza, mental health issues of healthcare providers, care givers and patients, impact on human mobility, lack of robust genomic and epidemiological data and long COVID-19. However, the policy-associated opportunities and other challenges are largely untouched, but warrant attention of and prompt reactions by the policy makers, healthcare providers, public health officials and other stakeholders. The associated benefits are quick reach of herd immunity, boost of economy and businesses activities and increase in social activities. At this moment, we must embrace the policy change, effectively mitigate its associated problems and timely and effectively maximize its associated benefits.

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中国取消 COVID-19 零政策的挑战与机遇。
中国政府于 2022 年 12 月取消了 "零 COVID-19 "政策。政策调整后,预计 COVDI-19 新发病例和死亡人数分别为 1.67 亿至 2.79 亿(约占中国人口的 12.0% 至 20.1%)和 68 万至 210 万。最近的数据还显示,中国的生育率持续下降,国内生产总值的增长率也降至历史最低水平。因此,平衡 COVID-19 控制与中国经济复苏之间的关系至关重要,但却非常困难。供应链中断、基本服务减少和重症监护病房短缺已被视为取消 "零 COVID-19 "政策所面临的挑战。其他挑战可能包括 COVID-19、呼吸道合胞病毒和流感的三重流行,医疗服务提供者、护理人员和患者的心理健康问题,对人员流动的影响,缺乏可靠的基因组学和流行病学数据以及 COVID-19 的长期存在。然而,与政策相关的机遇和其他挑战在很大程度上尚未触及,但值得政策制定者、医疗保健提供者、公共卫生官员和其他利益相关者关注并迅速做出反应。相关的益处包括迅速实现群体免疫、促进经济和商业活动以及增加社会活动。此时此刻,我们必须拥抱政策变革,有效缓解相关问题,及时有效地最大限度地发挥相关效益。
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