Forecasting The Demand for Gold in India: An Analysis of Historical Time-Series Data

Abstract

Gold has been an integral part of Indian culture and tradition for centuries. India is one of the largest consumers and importers of gold in the world, with gold demand primarily driven by weddings, festivals and religious ceremonies. In recent years, gold has also emerged as an investment asset class with people investing in gold for long-term gain and to hedge against inflation. Gold is also considered as a safe haven asset and is often used as a store of value during economic and political uncertainties. Almost all the central banks hold gold as a crucial part of their foreign currency reserve. Hence forecasting the demand for gold becomes essential to make informed investment decisions, management of reserves by the institutions etc. This study aims to forecast the demand for gold on the basis of the recent trends and patterns of demand for gold in India in the last five years (2017-2021). The researcher analysed historical data on gold from various sources and examined the trends over time. The study used the linear trend analysis method to create a linear equation that predicted future gold demand based on past gold demand trends. The results obtained by this research can be applied by the investors, goldsmiths and government; in various contexts, including investment and commodity trading to make informed decisions.