Determining the Accuracy of the Triangular and PERT Distributions

IF 2.5 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2023-01-05 DOI:10.1287/deca.2022.0464
Imran A. Khan, J. Bickel, Robert K. Hammond
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The Triangular and PERT (Program Evaluation Review Technique) distribution probability density functions are commonly used in decision and risk analyses. These distributions are popular because they are each specified by only three points (two support bounds and the mode) that are believed to be easy to assess from experts or data. In this paper, we carefully analyze how close the Triangular and PERT distributions are to other distributions sharing the same support and mode and show that the errors induced by the Triangular and PERT distributions are significant. We further show that distributions that are characterized by the median tend to provide a better fit than do those that are characterized by the mode. Funding: This research was supported by the Equinor Fellows Program and the Operating System 2.0 research program developed by the Construction Industry Institute.
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确定三角分布和PERT分布的准确性
三角分布概率密度函数和PERT (Program Evaluation Review Technique)分布概率密度函数是决策和风险分析中常用的方法。这些分布很受欢迎,因为它们每个只由三点(两个支持边界和模式)指定,这些点被认为很容易从专家或数据中进行评估。在本文中,我们仔细分析了三角分布和PERT分布与具有相同支撑和模态的其他分布的接近程度,并表明三角分布和PERT分布引起的误差是显著的。我们进一步表明,以中位数为特征的分布往往比以众数为特征的分布提供更好的拟合。资助:本研究由Equinor研究员项目和建筑工业研究所开发的操作系统2.0研究项目支持。
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来源期刊
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis MANAGEMENT-
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
21.10%
发文量
19
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