{"title":"Measuring and Mitigating the Risk of Advanced Cyberattackers","authors":"Amitai Gilad, Asher Tishler","doi":"10.1287/deca.2023.0072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0072","url":null,"abstract":"Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print. <br/>","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142184808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On the Value of Information Across Decision Problems","authors":"Ali Abbas, Gordon Hazen","doi":"10.1287/deca.2024.0187","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2024.0187","url":null,"abstract":"Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print. <br/>","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142184810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sina Ansari, S. Enayati, Raha Akhavan-Tabatabaei, Julie M. Kapp
Problem statement: This paper addresses the challenge of effectively responding to the opioid epidemic stemming from prescription pills through a public health lens. It centers on the strategic distribution of resources across diverse interventions aimed at preventing and mitigating the consequences of opioid use disorder (OUD) and overdose occurrences. Methodology: This paper proposes a decision aid tool built on the expected utility theory that leverages a Susceptible-Infected-Removed compartmental model to simulate the dynamics of the epidemic in a population. This model then feeds into a Markov Decision Process (MDP) model to generate optimal policies upon the current state of the epidemic. The optimal policies allocate the intervention budget to primary preventive and mitigating interventions in each decision period by minimizing the cost of fatal overdoses relative to the population’s number of individuals with OUD, considering the impact magnitude of each intervention, based on the current state of the epidemic. A 10-year simulation of the epidemic’s progression is conducted to assess the dynamic efficacy of the proposed decision tool. Results: The findings reveal an average reduction of 29% in total costs compared to the scenario without interventions and a decrease of 12% in total costs on average compared to the scenario with a 50-50 allocation. The extensive sensitivity analysis of key parameters validates the decision aid tool. We observe that it is optimal to allocate a significant portion of the budget to prevention when the rate of opioid pill acquisition rises. Even with a heightened rate of fatal overdoses, it remains optimal to mostly invest in preventive interventions, as long as fatal overdose rates are lower than opioid access rates. Practical implications: This study provides practitioners with a tool to effectively address the opioid epidemic and enhance public health by deciding how to allocate their budget to various levels of intervention.
{"title":"Curbing the Opioid Crisis: Optimal Dynamic Policies for Preventive and Mitigating Interventions","authors":"Sina Ansari, S. Enayati, Raha Akhavan-Tabatabaei, Julie M. Kapp","doi":"10.1287/deca.2023.0084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0084","url":null,"abstract":"Problem statement: This paper addresses the challenge of effectively responding to the opioid epidemic stemming from prescription pills through a public health lens. It centers on the strategic distribution of resources across diverse interventions aimed at preventing and mitigating the consequences of opioid use disorder (OUD) and overdose occurrences. Methodology: This paper proposes a decision aid tool built on the expected utility theory that leverages a Susceptible-Infected-Removed compartmental model to simulate the dynamics of the epidemic in a population. This model then feeds into a Markov Decision Process (MDP) model to generate optimal policies upon the current state of the epidemic. The optimal policies allocate the intervention budget to primary preventive and mitigating interventions in each decision period by minimizing the cost of fatal overdoses relative to the population’s number of individuals with OUD, considering the impact magnitude of each intervention, based on the current state of the epidemic. A 10-year simulation of the epidemic’s progression is conducted to assess the dynamic efficacy of the proposed decision tool. Results: The findings reveal an average reduction of 29% in total costs compared to the scenario without interventions and a decrease of 12% in total costs on average compared to the scenario with a 50-50 allocation. The extensive sensitivity analysis of key parameters validates the decision aid tool. We observe that it is optimal to allocate a significant portion of the budget to prevention when the rate of opioid pill acquisition rises. Even with a heightened rate of fatal overdoses, it remains optimal to mostly invest in preventive interventions, as long as fatal overdose rates are lower than opioid access rates. Practical implications: This study provides practitioners with a tool to effectively address the opioid epidemic and enhance public health by deciding how to allocate their budget to various levels of intervention.","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141374546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-29DOI: 10.1287/deca.2024.editorial.v21.n2
Vicki M. Bier
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
决策分析》，提前出版。
{"title":"From the Editor: 2023 Clemen–Kleinmuntz Decision Analysis Best Paper Award","authors":"Vicki M. Bier","doi":"10.1287/deca.2024.editorial.v21.n2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2024.editorial.v21.n2","url":null,"abstract":"Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print. <br/>","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140841396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Decision on what consumer reactions (support or boycott) to promote is important for nongovernmental organizations and policymakers looking to influence firms’ adoption of corporate social responsibility practices. We study how consumer reactions—paying more for certified products or boycotting in the event of responsibility violations—are effective in improving a firm’s uptake of responsibility practices in the sourcing domain. We first build a stylized model to study how consumer reaction affects a firm’s incentives toward responsible sourcing and find that only boycotting reactions by consumers reliably increases a firm’s sourcing from responsible suppliers. We then include behavioral aspects to our stylized model to derive a more nuanced understanding of how consumer reactions affect responsible sourcing. Through behavioral experiments, we first show that a supporting consumer reaction induces a dual-sourcing bias in firms’ sourcing decisions. We then develop a behavioral model of responsible sourcing, incorporating this dual-sourcing bias. Our analysis modifies the normative predictions of the stylized model by showing that a supporting reaction, irrespective of magnitude, always improves responsible sourcing if the boycotting reaction from the market is weak, and that promoting a boycotting reaction always improves responsible sourcing, irrespective of the product type. Our results lead us to a comprehensive and applicable insight for practice: in the supply chains of products with few brand substitutes, creating a supporting reaction in the market is the way to improve firms’ responsible sourcing, and in supply chains of products with many brand substitutes, promoting a boycotting reaction among consumers will lead to more responsible sourcing.
{"title":"A Behavioral Model of Responsible Sourcing in Supply Chains: The Role of Dual-Sourcing Bias","authors":"M. Mahmoudzadeh, Aadhaar Chaturvedi","doi":"10.1287/deca.2023.0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0010","url":null,"abstract":"Decision on what consumer reactions (support or boycott) to promote is important for nongovernmental organizations and policymakers looking to influence firms’ adoption of corporate social responsibility practices. We study how consumer reactions—paying more for certified products or boycotting in the event of responsibility violations—are effective in improving a firm’s uptake of responsibility practices in the sourcing domain. We first build a stylized model to study how consumer reaction affects a firm’s incentives toward responsible sourcing and find that only boycotting reactions by consumers reliably increases a firm’s sourcing from responsible suppliers. We then include behavioral aspects to our stylized model to derive a more nuanced understanding of how consumer reactions affect responsible sourcing. Through behavioral experiments, we first show that a supporting consumer reaction induces a dual-sourcing bias in firms’ sourcing decisions. We then develop a behavioral model of responsible sourcing, incorporating this dual-sourcing bias. Our analysis modifies the normative predictions of the stylized model by showing that a supporting reaction, irrespective of magnitude, always improves responsible sourcing if the boycotting reaction from the market is weak, and that promoting a boycotting reaction always improves responsible sourcing, irrespective of the product type. Our results lead us to a comprehensive and applicable insight for practice: in the supply chains of products with few brand substitutes, creating a supporting reaction in the market is the way to improve firms’ responsible sourcing, and in supply chains of products with many brand substitutes, promoting a boycotting reaction among consumers will lead to more responsible sourcing.","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140671218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-18DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0073.reply
Simon French
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
决策分析》，提前出版。
{"title":"Reply to “Comment on ‘Whose Judgement? Reflections on Elicitation in Bayesian Analysis’ ”","authors":"Simon French","doi":"10.1287/deca.2023.0073.reply","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0073.reply","url":null,"abstract":"Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print. <br/>","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140626685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-18DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0073.comment
Lawrence D. Phillips
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
决策分析》，提前出版。
{"title":"Comment on “Whose Judgement? Reflections on Elicitation in Bayesian Analysis”","authors":"Lawrence D. Phillips","doi":"10.1287/deca.2023.0073.comment","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0073.comment","url":null,"abstract":"Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print. <br/>","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140630260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-04DOI: 10.1287/deca.2024.editorial.v21.n1
Vicki M. Bier
Decision Analysis, Volume 21, Issue 1, Page 1-3, March 2024.
决策分析》，第 21 卷，第 1 期，第 1-3 页，2024 年 3 月。
{"title":"Trends in Decision Analysis: A Reflection on the First 20 Years of the Journal","authors":"Vicki M. Bier","doi":"10.1287/deca.2024.editorial.v21.n1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2024.editorial.v21.n1","url":null,"abstract":"Decision Analysis, Volume 21, Issue 1, Page 1-3, March 2024. <br/>","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140047636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-01DOI: 10.1287/deca.2024.v21.266368279
Vicki Bier
With the start of 2024, Decision Analysis has now completed 20 full years of publication. As the current Editor-in-Chief, I wanted to take this opportunity to reflect on the themes that have occupied scholars in the field, and how they have changed over time. I have taken as my starting point the most heavily cited articles in each year (or most heavily downloaded, for 2023, for which citation information is not yet meaningful).
{"title":"Trends in Decision Analysis: A Reflection on the First 20 Years of the Journal","authors":"Vicki Bier","doi":"10.1287/deca.2024.v21.266368279","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2024.v21.266368279","url":null,"abstract":"With the start of 2024, Decision Analysis has now completed 20 full years of publication. As the current Editor-in-Chief, I wanted to take this opportunity to reflect on the themes that have occupied scholars in the field, and how they have changed over time. I have taken as my starting point the most heavily cited articles in each year (or most heavily downloaded, for 2023, for which citation information is not yet meaningful).","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140087254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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