India–China Trade: Asymmetrical Developments and Future Prospects

South Asia Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI:10.1177/1391561419840137

Sunanda Ghosh, M. Agarwal, Adrita Banerjee

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

This article seeks to provide an overview of the evolution and analyses the changing composition of trade between India and China over the period 1983–2017. We find that Chinese exports are almost completely concentrated in manufactures, especially finished equipment goods, whereas Indian exports consist of both agriculture and manufactures and over time have shifted predominantly to intermediate goods. Further, both the countries are exporting those commodities to each other in which they have a revealed comparative advantage, with China’s exports being more diversified. We employ vector error correction estimation and show that China’s exports to India are dependent on India’s household consumption expenditure, while India’ exports to China are correlated to Chinese manufacturing value added. Finally, we calculate the share of each country’s commodity-wise export to the partner in their respective total exports with a view to studying prospects for India–China trade. We conclude that for further trade expansion, diversification is extremely necessary, and Indian exports of inputs to Chinese industries need to change substantially to accommodate the changing nature of China’s industrial structure. JEL: F14, F15, O24

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印中贸易:不对称发展和未来前景

本文旨在概述这一演变，并分析1983-2017年期间印度和中国之间贸易构成的变化。我们发现，中国的出口几乎完全集中在制成品上，尤其是制成品，而印度的出口既包括农产品，也包括制成品，而且随着时间的推移，出口主要转向了中间产品。此外，两国都在向对方出口各自具有明显比较优势的商品，而中国的出口更加多样化。我们采用向量误差修正估计，表明中国对印度的出口依赖于印度的家庭消费支出，而印度对中国的出口与中国制造业增加值相关。最后，我们计算了每个国家对合作伙伴的商品出口在各自出口总额中的份额，以研究印中贸易的前景。我们得出的结论是，为了进一步扩大贸易，多样化是极其必要的，印度对中国产业的投入品出口需要发生重大变化，以适应中国产业结构的变化。Jel: f14, f15, o24

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来源期刊

South Asia Economic Journal Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

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1.10

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0.00%

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期刊介绍： The South Asian nations have progressively liberalized their economies in recent years in an effort to integrate with the world economy. They have also taken steps to enhance multilateral and regional economic integration. Even though the South Asian economies have grown at an average rate of more than 5 per cent over the last few years, roughly 40 per cent of their people still live below the poverty line. Hence, the South Asian region continues to face many challenges of economic and social development. The South Asia Economic Journal (SAEJ) is designed as a forum for informed debate on these issues, which are of vital importance to the people of the region who comprise one-sixth of the world’s population. The peer-reviewed journal is devoted to economic analysis and policy options aimed at promoting cooperation among the countries comprising South Asia. It also discusses South Asia’s position on global economic issues, its relations with other regional groupings and its response to global developments. We also welcome contributions to inter-disciplinary analysis on South Asia. As a refereed journal, SAEJ carries articles by scholars, economic commentators,policy-makers and officials, from both the private and public sectors. Our aim is to create a vibrant research space to explore the multidimensional economic issues of concern to scholars working on South Asia. Among the issues debated in relation to South Asia are: - the implications of global economic trends; - the issues and challenges by WTO; - approaches to industrialization and development; - the role of regional institutions such as the SAARC; - the relationship between SAARC and other regional economic groupings such as ASEAN; - the implications of economic liberalization for trade and investment in the region; - new initiatives that can be launched to enhance economic cooperation among the South Asian countries both on a bilateral and a regional basis.