Geospatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Using AHP–GIS to Delineate Groundwater Potential Zones in Zakho Basin, Kurdistan Region, Iraq

Abstract

Groundwater availability in the Zakho Basin faces significant challenges due to political issues, border stream control, climate change, urbanization, land use changes, and poor administration, leading to declining groundwater quantity and quality. To address these issues, this study utilized the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and geospatial techniques to identify potential groundwater sites in Zakho. The study assigned weights normalized through the AHP eigenvector and created a final index using the weighted overlay method and specific criteria such as slope, flow accumulation, drainage density, lineament density, geology, well data, rainfall, and soil type. Validation through the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC = 0.849) and coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.81) demonstrated the model’s accuracy. The results showed that 17% of the area had the highest potential as a reliable groundwater source, 46% represented high-to-moderate potential zones, and 37% had low potential. Flat areas between rivers and high mountains displayed the greatest potential for groundwater development. Identifying these potential sites can aid farmers, regional planners, and local governments in making precise decisions about installing hand pumps and tube wells for a regular water supply. Additionally, the findings contribute to the development of a sustainable groundwater management plan, focusing on improving water usage and protecting water-related ecosystems in the region. Identification of the optimum influencing factors, arrangement of the factors in a hierarchy, and creation of a GWPI map will allow further planning for groundwater preservation and sustainability. This project can be conducted in other areas facing droughts.