Disturbance of Population & It's Impact on China Higher Education Development

Abstract

The decreasing birth rate and the rising popularity of overseas studies have combined to drag the number of candidates for college entrance exam. Besides these two reasons, the disturbance of population happened 51 years ago may cause the decrease in number of college entrance exam candidates in the future.We constructed a nonlinear regression model to analyze the impact of disturbance of population on the scale of higher education.According to our nonlinear regression model analysis,the gross enrollment rate of higher education should reach 55％ by the year 2020, and average annual increase rate of China gross college enrollment number is about 3%.Then the popularization of higher education will be realized by the year 2020,and the lack source of students could be released.