Predicted the Cumulative Annual Rainfall in Iraq Using SDSM Modal

Abstract

Rain is deemed one of the most important climate elements. It must be given special attention for being the basis without which no kind of life in the world can be there. the aim of the study is to use Statistical models Downscaling (SDSM) where it is a universal model used to converting large scale output into a small scale that can be used to study impact at the local scale (Iraq)' to Forecasting cumulative annual rainfall for the next years where there are a few studies used this model in Iraq. Daily rainfall data from the Iraqi Meteorological Organization and Seismology (IMOS) (2007-2016) for the study areas (Baghdad, Karbala, Al-Hay, Mosul, Kirkuk, Khanaqin, Basra, Nasiriya, Diwaniya, and Rutba) is used to estimate the amount of rainfall by using SDSM. The model was used to estimate the rain values and then the results were compared with the actual values, the results were very close to each other. Also, the model used to predict the cumulative annual rainfall from (2017-2021), The result shows that the bigger amount of rainfall in the north region with (3821) mm and the lowest amount in the west region (665) mm, while middle region (1848) mm and south region (1828) mm.