The Political Business Cycle in Asian Countries

L. Hung
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Abstract

The political business cycle (PBC) theory argues that an incumbent party tends to use government resources to impress voters, so government spending always rises before but declines after an election. Many PBC studies have been done for an individual country or cross-countries, but the results are conflicting. The purpose of this paper is to explore possible fluctuating patterns of government spending in response to political elections in Asian countries because of a lack of studies across this region. In this study, data on 219 elections in 26 countries from 1990 to 2014 are collected. There are two main findings: firstly, government spending falls the year after elections in Asian countries; secondly, the degree of democracy and transparency have impacts on government spending in Asian countries.
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亚洲国家的政治经济周期
政治经济周期(PBC)理论认为,执政党倾向于利用政府资源来打动选民,因此政府支出总是在选举前上升,在选举后下降。许多针对单个国家或跨国国家的PBC研究已经完成,但结果相互矛盾。由于缺乏对亚洲国家政治选举的研究,本文的目的是探讨亚洲国家政府支出可能的波动模式。本研究收集了1990年至2014年26个国家219次选举的数据。研究有两个主要发现:首先,亚洲国家的政府支出在选举后一年下降;其次,民主和透明程度对亚洲国家的政府支出有影响。
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自引率
0.00%
发文量
19
审稿时长
24 weeks
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