Inclusive economic growth through employment and income: Experience of the Russian Federation

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all areas of society. Among the most tangible consequences of the “coronacrisis” in Russia, one can single out a decrease in the number of employed people and a drop in incomes of the population in 2020. The high speed of the spread of the coronavirus has determined the need for the introduction of prompt measures to combat COVID-19, as well as supportive measures for both the population and businesses. Despite the scale and breadth of the measures of state support implemented in 2020, the question of methods for assessing their effectiveness is acute. The purpose of the study is to assess the inclusiveness of economic growth in the Russian Federation in the context of COVID-19 in the areas of state support for employment and income of the population. The following hypotheses are being tested: 1) the inclusiveness of economic growth in terms of employment and income of the population has decreased in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic; 2) measures of state support for employment and incomes of the population made it possible to mitigate the drop in the value of the inclusiveness of economic growth. A new approach to analyze the effectiveness of public policy measures is suggested, on the basis of the author's dynamic approach to assessing the inclusiveness of economic growth. The proposed methodological approach is being tested for the case of analysis of the effect of state support measures in Russia in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment and incomes of the population. The increase in state welfare funding in 2020 compared to the modeled value made it possible to reduce the level of decline in the inclusiveness of economic growth (by 0.16 points), as a result of which this indicator in the areas of employment and income of the population decreased in 2020 by only 0.11 points. The results indicate relative effectiveness of the support measures adopted by the government that showed in mitigating the pandemic-induced fall in the inclusiveness of economic growth in 2020. The hypotheses under study were confirmed. The practical significance of this study lies in the proposal of a new dynamic approach to assessing the inclusiveness of economic growth, which can be used as a tool for assessing the effectiveness of the state policy pursued both at the federal and regional levels.