Application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to Assess the Environmental Sustainability in Bangladesh

S. Akhter, Murshida Khanam
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Abstract

This research inspects the associations among several macroeconomic factors in Bangladesh using yearly time series data from 1971 to 2019. It also aimed to determine if the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis exists in Bangladesh or not. The findings from the stationarity tests reveal that all variables are ordered I (1) integrated. The ARDL model has been used to explore the longrun and short-run connections between variables in the model. In the long term, the projected findings established the existence of the Kuznets curve hypothesis in the GDP-energy nexus. According to the study, there is a U-shaped association between economic expansion and greenhouse gas emissions. Food production and energy consumption increase emissions, however using biomass does not assist the country to attain sustainability, as an increase in biomass increases greenhouse gas emissions by 1.12%. As a result, our government should explore additional renewable energy sources to restrict emissions and take the required actions in all areas to achieve environmental sustainability. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 71(1): 60-68, 2023 (Jan)
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自回归分布滞后模型在孟加拉国环境可持续性评估中的应用
本研究使用1971年至2019年的年度时间序列数据检查了孟加拉国几个宏观经济因素之间的关联。它还旨在确定孟加拉国是否存在环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假设。平稳性检验的结果表明,所有变量都是有序的I(1)积分。ARDL模型用于探索模型中变量之间的长期和短期联系。从长期来看,预测结果确立了gdp -能源关系中的库兹涅茨曲线假设的存在。根据这项研究,经济扩张和温室气体排放之间存在u型关系。粮食生产和能源消费增加了排放,但使用生物质并不能帮助该国实现可持续性,因为生物质的增加使温室气体排放量增加1.12%。因此,我们的政府应该探索更多的可再生能源来限制排放,并在所有领域采取必要的行动来实现环境的可持续性。达卡大学学报(自然科学版),71(1):60-68,2023 (1)
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