China and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement: Misfit or Missed Opportunity?

Abstract

If it eventuates the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) will include major economic powerhouses like the US and Japan, but China - the elephant in the room - has been excluded. Our evaluation of how China might fare in the TPP finds that the agreement would be a poor fit at the current stage of China's economic development. Although China would gain both in terms of trade and a reform timetable, some features of this 21st-century agreement - the assistance given to state-owned enterprises, the standards for labour rights, protection of multinationals against the state and competition laws - would be stumbling blocks in the negotiation process. Thus, being left out of the TPP is no big loss for China.