Tolls, Exchange Rates, and Borderplex International Bridge Traffic

Abstract

Budget constraints are forcing many governments to consider implementing tolls as a means for financing bridge and road expenditures. Newly available time series data make it possible to analyze the impacts of toll variations and international business cycle fluctuations on cross-border bridge traffic between El Paso and Ciudad Juarez. Parameter estimation is carried out using a linear transfer function ARIMA methodology. Price elasticities of demand are similar to those reported for other regional economies, but out-of-sample forecasting results are mixed.