Impact of potential dairy-beef production on China's beef supply, demand and international trade

Abstract

In the past China has been self-sufficient in beef products, but, with a dramatic increase in consumer spending on food, demand for beef, which is seen as a novel and nutritious food, has grown. By employing a partial equilibrium model and sensitivity analysis under different scenarios, this study found that an expanded dairy-beef industry would reduce the beef deficit that arises, from 2008 onwards. The additional dairy-beef production would reduce the price of beef, and reduce, although not fill, the projected gap of 50 000 tonnes per year. Without dairy-beef, China will have a significant beef shortage.