Stock Market Trading Strategies Applying Risk and Decision Analysis Models for Detecting Financial Turbulence

Abstract

Risk handling and evaluation plays an importantrole in optimizing an investment portfolio. This paper's goal isto describe a system that determines, classifies and handles riskassociated to any type of investment based on sentiment analysis, price movement, information related to companies, certain characteristics, the traders confidence level, and by measuring thepotential loss over a certain period of time. This research impliesanalyzing trader's risk, market risk, risk associated to eachevaluated company or financial group, political and governmentalrisk. The system is able to create different types of portfoliooptions based on the investor/trader profile, which is build basedon the user's tolerance to risk (determined by the results froman interactive quiz that the user must complete when entering thesystem). We propose a multi-agent system that uses different typeof data(numerical, textual) in order to choose the appropriate mixof investments in order to minimize the risk and maximize thegain on a stock portfolio. In order to validate the result a systemwas constructed.