Statistical Analysis of the Monthly Activity of the Solar Flare

Imad Al-Ibrahimi
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Abstract

The study of solar flares (SF) is significant for a more understanding of the nature and dynamics of the sun as well as its impact on space weather. This paper will present a new idea by studying the monthly activity of SFs by collecting data for SFs, the flare index (FI), and the sunspots number (SSN) for the period from 1986 to 2019, which represents three solar cycles 22, 23 and 24. Extracting the monthly averages of the data shows us that the southern solar hemisphere is more active for solar flares than the northern solar hemisphere. Also, the second half of the year is more active than the first half of the three solar cycles. The most active months are March, (July or October) and November, while February was the least active. In addition, the evidence of the cross-correlation results in a strong positive relationship between the three variables. This study serves to forecast the state of the space weather during the months of the year.
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太阳耀斑月活动的统计分析
对太阳耀斑(SF)的研究对于更好地了解太阳的性质和动力学及其对空间天气的影响具有重要意义。本文将通过收集1986 - 2019年3个太阳周期(22、23、24)的SFs、耀斑指数(FI)和太阳黑子数(SSN)数据,研究SFs的月活动,提出一种新的思路。提取数据的月平均值表明,太阳耀斑在太阳南半球比在太阳北半球更为活跃。此外,今年下半年比三个太阳周期的上半年更活跃。最活跃的月份是3月(7月或10月)和11月,而最不活跃的月份是2月。此外,相互关联的证据表明,这三个变量之间存在很强的正相关关系。这项研究用于预测一年中几个月的太空天气状况。
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