An Integrated Forecasting Technique with Modified Weight Measurement

M. B. Hasan, M. Asadujjaman, M. H. Haque
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Abstract

Forecasting has long been part of our life since early of the history of human being. In the middle of 20th century forecasting becomes a part of every business and financial sectors. Nowadays every successful firm has to make its own forecasts with an acceptable error as there is no chance of zero error. The situation becomes more complicated if the observed data is more diverted from the existing pattern. In such situation it becomes more difficult to fit it into a suitable forecasting model.Then it requires to combine several forecasts to reach a better forecast.In this paper, we willdevelop a sophisticated forecasting technique bycombining the weighted average method with Linear Programming (LP) model by developing an alternative technique to calculate the weights. We will carry out our analysis by using Microsoft Excel, statistical data analysis tool R and MATHEMATICA. We will demonstrate our model by numerical examples. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 71(1): 36-41, 2023 (Jan)
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修正权值的综合预测技术
从人类历史的早期开始,预测就一直是我们生活的一部分。在20世纪中期,预测成为每个商业和金融部门的一部分。如今,每个成功的公司都必须在可接受的误差范围内做出自己的预测,因为不可能零误差。如果观测到的数据更多地偏离现有模式,情况就会变得更加复杂。在这种情况下,将其拟合到合适的预测模型中变得更加困难。然后,它需要将几个预测结合起来,以达到更好的预测。在本文中,我们将通过开发一种计算权重的替代技术,将加权平均方法与线性规划(LP)模型相结合,开发一种复杂的预测技术。我们将使用Microsoft Excel,统计数据分析工具R和MATHEMATICA进行分析。我们将用数值例子来证明我们的模型。达卡大学学报(自然科学版),71(1):36-41,2023 (1)
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