Predictive model of COVID-19 outcomes in patients with advanced HIV infection

Abstract

Background: A review of the literature showed that there are no studies on the course and outcomes of COVID-19 in patients with advanced HIV infection, so this study was conducted. Aims: Identification of predictors of adverse outcomes of COVID-19 in patients with HIV at the stage of secondary diseases in order to develop a predictive model of outcomes. This will help to simplify the decision-making on management of patients with COVID-19 and HIV infection at advanced stages. Materials and methods: This is a single-center study wich included 300 patients over 18 years of age with HIV infection at advanced stage of disease and moderate to severe COVID-19 requiring in-patient treatment. Results: Mortality rate was 27.3% (CI: 22.7% - 32.4%). Factors reflecting respiratory failure, immunodeficiency, decreased levels of protein, albumin, and increased levels of urea became unfavorable. A predictive model of adverse outcomes of COVID-19 in patients with advanced HIV infection has been obtained. Conclusions: A predictive model has been developed to help a practical healthcare doctor make a quick, informed decision on hospitalization of a patient in the intensive care unit and active therapeutic actions.