COVID-19 Pandemic and Fertility: What to Expect in the Future?

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic has impact on many aspects of social life. The paper discusses the potential effect of the pandemic on fertility. It is based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of the past pandemic of modern world (Spanish flu) on the fertility and potential mechanisms which will be at play in the post-COVID-19 pandemic fertility trajectory. The paper also overviews the most recent demographic fertility and family statistics, which show that fertility and marriage rates decreased in Lithuania significantly during the first year of the pandemic. The survey results from 2021 reveal that fertility intentions in the cohort 1985–89 were delayed by approximately 25%. It is concluded that fertility will be mostly affected by the way the state and society will solve the issues related to gender roles in the family, gender equality in labour market, social capital and trust, all of which had been challenged by the pandemic.