Mathematical Modeling, Analysis, and Optimal Control of Corruption Dynamics

Haileyesus Tessema Alemneh
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引用次数: 15

Abstract

In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model for the dynamics of corruption is proposed and analysed qualitatively using the stability theory of differential equations. The basic reproduction number with respect to the corruption-free equilibrium is obtained using next-generation matrix method. The conditions for local and global asymptotic stability of corruption-free and endemic equilibria are established. From the analysis using center manifold theory, the model exhibits forward bifurcation. Then, the model was extended by reformulating it as an optimal control problem, with the use of two time-dependent controls to assess the impact of corruption on human population, namely, campaigning about corruption through media and advertisement and exposing corrupted individuals to jail and giving punishment. By using Pontryagin’s maximum principle, necessary conditions for the optimal control of the transmission of corruption were derived. From the numerical simulation, it was found that the integrated control strategy must be taken to fight against corruption.
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腐败动力学的数学建模、分析与最优控制
本文利用微分方程的稳定性理论,提出了一种非线性确定性模型,并对其进行了定性分析。采用新一代矩阵法求出了无腐蚀平衡的基本再现数。建立了无腐败平衡点和地方性平衡点的局部和全局渐近稳定的条件。从中心流形理论的分析来看,该模型表现为正向分岔。然后,通过将模型重新表述为最优控制问题来扩展该模型,使用两个时间相关的控制来评估腐败对人口的影响,即通过媒体和广告开展反腐败运动,并将腐败的个人暴露于监狱并给予惩罚。利用庞特里亚金极大值原理,导出了最优控制腐败传播的必要条件。数值模拟结果表明,要打击腐败,必须采取综合控制策略。
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