Epistemological Aspects of Simulation Models for Decision Support

Abstract

In this paper, the author explores epistemological aspects of simulation with a particular focus on using simulations to provide recommendations to managers and other decision-makers. The author presents formal definitions of knowledge (as justified true belief) and of simulation. The author shows that a simple model, the Kuramoto model of coupled-oscillators, satisfies the simulation definition (and therefore generates knowledge) through a justified mapping from the real world. The author argues that, for more complex models, such a justified mapping requires three techniques: using an appropriate and justified theoretical construct; using appropriate and justified values for model parameters; and testing or other verification processes to ensure that the mapping is correctly defined. The author illustrates these three techniques with experiments and models from the literature, including the Long House Valley model of Axtell et al., the SAFTE model of sleep, and the Segregation model of Wilensky. Epistemological Aspects of Simulation Models for Decision Support