Validation of a Mathematical Model Applied to Four Autonomous Communities in Spain to Determine the Number of People Infected by Covid-19

Abstract

In this study, the application of a mathematical method already developed in other articles for the study of the speed of propagation of the number of people infected by Covid-19 has been validated. The proposed mathematical model has been contrasted with models based on quantitative prognostic methods in order to seek its validation. At the same time, the forecast errors of the proposed methods and the mathematical model have been calculated and compared. The results obtained have been applied to the four autonomous communities in Spain with the highest number of coronavirus infections during the study period, obtaining very satisfactory results and achieving very good approximations to the real data on the number of infected people in all the autonomous communities studied.